THE HOME STRAIGHT SHOWDOWN
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Blackburny Starb 2y 15 | M E Wiley — 19% R532 W102 P272 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 40 | 58 (2) | 60 (3) | 41 (5) | 77 (1) | 39 (4) | 53 (2) | - | - | - | - | 16 | 28 | 17 | 27 | 55 | 38 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Young Siennab 3y 6 | P W Young — 17% R1258 W213 P679 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 56 | 68 (1) | 60 (2) | 46 (4) | 62 (1) | 60 (2) | 46 (4) | 60 (2) | 64 (2) | 60 (2) | 53 (4) | 40 | 33 | 26 | 50 | 59 | 48 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Lava Aced 2y 5 | P W Young — 17% R1258 W213 P679 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 37 | 54 (3) | 52 (4) | 69 (1) | 46 (5) | 60 (3) | 56 (1) | 38 (3) | 31 (4) | 43 (2) | 64 (6) | 27 | 23 | 5 | 27 | 53 | 41 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Chelms Jackd 2y 5 | A Kelly-pilgrim — 15% R218 W33 P99 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 52 | 49 (4) | 46 (5) | 69 (1) | 37 (5) | 51 (4) | 59 (3) | 45 (5) | 47 (6) | 57 (4) | 71 (1) | 33 | 36 | 4 | 27 | 52 | 44 | 5 | 12/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Yahoo Orlab 2y 37 | P W Young — 17% R1258 W213 P679 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 52 | 53 (3) | 69 (1) | 51 (3) | 63 (2) | 48 (5) | 50 (4) | 55 (5) | 44 (5) | 75 (1) | 62 (2) | 29 | 36 | 31 | 36 | 57 | 40 | 3 | 5/4F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Young Sienna | 24.50 | 24.70 | 24.50 | 50 | 0.00 | ||
| 5 | Yahoo Orla | 24.37 | 24.77 | 24.60 | 50 | +0.23 | trial sharpener | |
| 1 | Blackburny Star | 24.40 | 24.75 | 24.70 | 49 | +0.30 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Lava Ace | 24.45 | 24.80 | 24.90 | 48 | +0.45 | ||
| 4 | Chelms Jack | 24.50 | 24.85 | 24.95 | 47 | +0.45 | 0 wins from 5 |
Young Sienna and Yahoo Orla both have early pace, one from the rails box and the other drawn wide, and how those two break will shape the race. Blackburny Star also likes to sit up with the rail from trap one, giving her every chance of getting first crack at the turn even without the fastest recorded gate speed. Chelms Jack and Lava Ace are more middle-of-the-track types who need pace to collapse in front of them. If Young Sienna and Yahoo Orla take each other on early, Blackburny Star could sneak through with a tactically superior run from the inside.
Won last time out but the form before that was patchy — a mix of places and a couple of moderate efforts. Her trainer has the best record in these conditions of anyone in this race, comfortably ahead of the others. She holds the field's outright best recorded time and sticks to the inside rail, a combination that plays to her strengths from the one box. The concern is consistency rather than raw ability, since the placed runs outnumber the wins by some distance, and she doesn't have the sheer gate speed of Young Sienna or Yahoo Orla to fall back on if the tactics don't fall her way. The ratings favour this one, though the structural case — largely the trainer record and the fastest time — isn't completely overwhelming on its own.
In good form with two wins from her last five and nothing worse than fourth in between. She steps up from the level below today, so the test gets harder even though she's been racing well. The blue jacket has produced more winners than any other box here, and her trainer's record in these conditions is solid without being spectacular. She shares the fastest speed rating in this field and sticks to the rails, a combination that gives her a genuine chance of leading throughout. The most dangerous runner in this race on the data — the best draw and the fastest clock make her the biggest threat to the pick.
Drops in class after racing at a tougher level recently, though even there the form was moderate rather than sharp — no better than fourth in his last three. His trainer has the highest strike rate of any handler in this race, albeit from a small sample of runs, so it's a record to note rather than fully trust. He races through the middle of the track and isn't among the pace on the clock, sitting behind the two speed leaders. The class drop offers some hope but the recent form doesn't inspire much confidence of a bounce-back. Up against it on today's numbers.
Won once from her last five and has otherwise been finishing mid-pack, a moderate level of form to bring into this grade. She's been slow away in her recent starts, which over this trip leaves little time to make amends, and she races through the middle rather than committing to a clear running line. Her trainer's record is respectable, for what that's worth given it's the same yard fielding three runners here. She's not among the pace of the leading pair on the clock either. Has it to do on the ratings and the running style doesn't help her cause.
Placed four times from her last five starts without quite getting her head in front, a picture of consistency rather than dominance. There's a trial in the background too, clocked well inside her recent race average, which points to more improvement in hand. She shares the fastest speed rating in this field and has early pace of her own, though she tends to drift away from the rail which costs a little ground at a track where wide running is common. Could easily reverse the form given the trial sharpener, but the wide draw and the presence of a faster-draw rival ahead of her make this a step behind the top two.
Key insight: One trainer, P W Young, saddles three of the six runners in this race — an unusual concentration worth watching for stable intentions alongside the raw form.
Trap two strongest at 21%, trap three weakest at 18% — a narrow, insignificant spread
1,691 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 400m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Blackburny Star | 43 | 79 | Closer |
2Young Sienna | 59 | 24 | Fader |
3Lava Ace | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Chelms Jack | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Yahoo Orla | 52 | 47 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 400m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (400m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 400m | 525m | 575m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackburny Star | 0.617 | 0.566 | — |
| 2 | Young Sienna | 0.616 | — | — |
| 3 | Lava Ace | 0.619 | — | 0.639 |
| 4 | Chelms Jack | 0.619 | — | — |
| 5 | Yahoo Orla | 0.617 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.