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SUNDAY CARVERY A5 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Jackdawd 1y 2 | - | - | 46 | - | 56 (5) | 57 (4) | 56 (4) | 41 (4) | 36 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | 51 | 38 | 3 | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Corcass Coyoted 2y 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 25 | 4 | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Keplar Danzigd 1y 11 | - | - | 50 | - | 71 (3) | 45 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 59 | 43 | 1 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Margan Mayb 1y 11 | - | - | 49 | - | 72 (1) | 47 (5) | 46 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 26 | - | - | 30 | 56 | 42 | 2 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Lotus Pearlb 2y 24 | - | - | 50 | - | 76 (1) | 58 (3) | 44 (5) | 68 (3) | 59 (4) | 54 (6) | 67 (4) | 48 (5) | 82 (1) | 62 (3) | 35 | 29 | 14 | 24 | 62 | 45 | 6 | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Geste Sportifd 1y 25 | Cathal McGhee — 14% R14 W2 P7 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 81 (1) | 71 (1) | 41 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 29 | 50 | 30 | 30 | 66 | 46 | 5 | - | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackdaw | 29.64 | 29.79 | 29.64 | 46 | 0.00 | Steady | |
| 2 | Corcass Coyote | No recorded races - a complete unknown quantity, drawn in the weakest trap too. | — | No form on file | ||||
| 3 | Keplar Danzig | 29.61 | 29.61 | 29.61 | 50 | 0.00 | Best trap | |
| 4 | Margan May | 29.63 | 29.63 | 29.63 | 49 | 0.00 | Won lower grade LTO | |
| 5 | Lotus Pearl | 29.36 | 29.87 | 30.26 | 50 | +0.90 | Won LTO, best trap | |
| 6 | Geste Sportif | 29.53 | 29.53 | 29.73 | 54 | +0.20 | Model pick, weak trap | |
At this grade and trip trap 3 and trap 5 have been the two boxes to be drawn in, both winning over a fifth of races (21.5% and 21.3%), while traps 2 and 6 have struggled to under 12%. The fastest dog in the field wins more than a quarter of the time here (28.2%), the strongest single guide of any factor at this grade. Geste Sportif ticks every box except the draw - fastest on the clock, best recent form including a win last time out, and an outstanding course and distance record - but he lines up from the weakest-performing trap on the card. Lotus Pearl offers the best combination of form and a favourable draw as the alternative.
Won last time out and carries the best average performance rating in the field, with a peak of 81 among his last three runs. He is also the fastest dog in the race on the clock, and his course and distance record is outstanding - two wins and two places from three runs at this exact combination. Trainer Cathal McGhee has a fair overall win rate too. The one knock is the draw - trap 6 has been the weakest-performing box at this grade - but the scale of his advantage in form, speed and course and distance record is wide enough to make him the pick regardless.
Also won last time out and holds the second-best average performance rating in the field, with a peak of 76 in her most recent run. She lines up from one of the two best-performing traps at this grade, winning over a fifth of the time. Her last run over this trip was slightly slower than her season's best, but the draw and recent winning form make her the clearest alternative to the top pick.
Finished third last time out at this exact grade and trip, and lines up from the other strong trap at this grade tonight - trap 3 wins over a fifth of the time here. Only two runs on file so the form is still emerging, but both were competitive. A fair each-way type given the draw.
Won last time out, though that was at a lower grade than tonight's race, so stepping up in class is the question mark. Form before that was more modest. Trap 4 is a middling draw at this grade. Capable of running well but the step up makes her hard to fully trust as a winning threat.
Finished fifth last time out at this exact grade and trip, and his form has been steady without threatening the front of the field, sitting in the high-30s to high-50s range recently. Trap 1 is a workable draw here but not the standout. Others have stronger claims tonight.
A complete unknown with no recorded races on file, and to make matters worse he is drawn in one of the two weakest-performing traps at this grade, winning under 12% of the time. There is simply nothing in his profile to build a case around tonight.
Key insight: The fastest dog in the field wins 28.2% of the time at this grade and trip - the standout single predictor, well clear of the top-rated dog on the model (21.0%). Traps 3 and 5 are the productive boxes, traps 2 and 6 the ones to be wary of.
T1:17.8% T2:11.8% T3:21.5% T4:16.5% T5:21.3% T6:11.9%
906 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackdaw | 0.555 | 0.570 |
| 2 | Corcass Coyote | — | — |
| 3 | Keplar Danzig | 0.565 | 0.564 |
| 4 | Margan May | 0.562 | 0.564 |
| 5 | Lotus Pearl | — | 0.569 |
| 6 | Geste Sportif | — | 0.566 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.