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GOODNIGHT AND SAFE HOME A3 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ridgedale Roxyb 1y 2 | - | - | 53 | - | 72 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 32 | 15 | - | 30 | 72 | 46 | 1 | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Coonough Dreamerd 2y 16 | - | - | 48 | - | 83 (1) | 76 (1) | 73 (2) | 46 (5) | 67 (3) | 79 (1) | 59 (5) | 43 (6) | 68 (3) | 81 (1) | 21 | 13 | - | 50 | 69 | 49 | 5 | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Rebel Starb 2y 25 | - | - | 51 | - | 71 (2) | 75 (2) | 88 (1) | 87 (1) | 71 (3) | 60 (2) | 85 (1) | 69 (4) | - | - | 31 | - | 36 | 54 | 76 | 30 | 2 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Smurfing Legacyd 3y 36 | - | - | 61 | - | 75 (3) | 63 (4) | 57 (5) | 91 (1) | 86 (1) | 42 (4) | 69 (3) | 78 (2) | 48 (6) | 49 (5) | 28 | 37 | 20 | 45 | 68 | 47 | 4 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Hillstreet Popb 4y 43 | - | - | 17 | - | 46 (6) | 38 (6) | 44 (6) | 56 (2) | 47 (4) | 55 (5) | 57 (4) | 60 (3) | 50 (5) | 59 (4) | 18 | - | - | 12 | 49 | 4 | 6 | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Rebeccas Rolob 1y 23 | Jimmy Anderson (NI) — 14% R14 W2 P5 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 73 (6) | 71 (2) | 74 (3) | 77 (3) | 81 (2) | 46 (1) | 63 (6) | 80 (2) | 74 (1) | - | 13 | 58 | - | 39 | 72 | 49 | 3 | - | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ridgedale Roxy | 29.28 | 29.28 | 29.48 | 53 | +0.20 | Won lower grade LTO | |
| 2 | Coonough Dreamer | 29.16 | 29.75 | 29.86 | 48 | +0.70 | Won LTO, best trap | |
| 3 | Rebel Star | 29.18 | 29.50 | 29.23 | 51 | +0.05 | Top rated on paper | |
| 4 | Smurfing Legacy | 28.96 | 29.39 | 28.96 | 61 | 0.00 | Fastest, strong C&D | |
| 5 | Hillstreet Pop | 29.67 | 30.09 | 30.40 | 17 | +0.73 | Slowest, weak trap | |
| 6 | Rebeccas Rolo | No time recorded for the last run at this exact distance in the data pulled, though she has ten prior runs here. | — | Model pick | ||||
The closing race of the night and trap 2 has been the best-performing box at this grade (21.1% from 57 runs), with trap 5 the weakest (10.9%). The composite model has been only moderately reliable here, so course and distance form and recent consistency carry real weight tonight. Rebeccas Rolo stands out on that front - a strong course and distance specialist with a hugely consistent run of recent form even after one blip last time out. Smurfing Legacy is the fastest dog in the race on the clock and also has an excellent record at this exact combination. Rebel Star arrives with the best raw performance rating in the field on paper.
A proven specialist at this exact combination - three wins and six places from ten course and distance runs, a 90% place rate that is the best in the field by some distance. Her recent form has been consistently in the low-to-high 70s across four of her last five runs, with only a single below-par effort mixed in, which shouldn't be read as a genuine decline. Trainer Jimmy Anderson has a fair 20% win rate. Trap 6 isn't the strongest draw at this grade, but the depth of her course and distance record makes her the pick.
The fastest dog in the race on the clock, and his course and distance record backs it up nicely - two wins and three places from six runs, an 83% place rate. He finished third last time out at this exact grade and trip and his form has been solid, if unspectacular, across recent runs. A genuine threat to the top pick on both pace and specialist form.
Carries the best average performance rating in the field on paper, with peaks of 87 and 88 among his last six runs, and was runner-up at this exact grade last time out. There is no course and distance form on file for him yet at Lifford specifically, which is the one thing holding him back from a stronger case. On raw ability alone he has to be respected.
Won last time out, though that was at a considerably lower grade, so tonight represents a step up in class. Only a single run on file to judge her by, albeit a positive one with a course and distance win. Capable but unproven at this level.
Won last time out at a slightly lower grade and lines up from the best-performing trap at this level. Her course and distance record shows a win and a place from three runs. The draw advantage and the winning form make her worth including, even if the step up in grade is a small question mark.
By far the slowest recorded speed rating in the field and finished last of six in his most recent outing. Drawn in the weakest-performing trap at this grade too. There is little in his profile to suggest he can trouble this field tonight.
Key insight: The trap split is fairly even across the inside four boxes at this grade, with trap 5 the clear weak spot. The composite has been a moderate guide at best - course and distance specialism is doing more of the work in this analysis.
T1:19.6% T2:21.1% T3:20.0% T4:16.1% T5:10.9% T6:14.0%
336 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 525m | 550m | 570m | 575m | 750m | 820m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ridgedale Roxy | 0.558 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | Coonough Dreamer | 0.567 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | Rebel Star | 0.562 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | Smurfing Legacy | 0.560 | 0.555 | — | 0.559 | 0.579 | 0.584 |
| 5 | Hillstreet Pop | 0.573 | — | 0.570 | — | — | — |
| 6 | Rebeccas Rolo | 0.565 | — | — | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.