Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Makeit Laurenb 2y 6 | F J Gray — 20% R353 W71 P188 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 92 | 26 (3) | 22 (4) | 22 (6) | 19 (6) | 28 (2) | 29 (4) | 26 (2) | 57 (1) | 35 (4) | 31 (6) | 44 | 40 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 1 | 5/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ Monroe Bessb 1y 14 | N J Deas — 17% R454 W77 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 11 (6) | 36 (1) | 25 (5) | 78 (1) | 21 (4) | 29 (1) | - | - | - | - | 44 | 19 | - | 23 | 29 | 29 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Shake Ya Buttb 4y 17 | N J Deas — 17% R454 W77 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 18 (5) | 23 (3) | 20 (5) | 18 (5) | 20 (3) | 20 (4) | 19 (5) | 18 (5) | 31 (1) | 26 (3) | 38 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 23 | 26 | 5 | 10/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Falls Of Dochartd 3y 15 | N J Deas — 17% R454 W77 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 9 | 58 (2) | 62 (1) | 42 (3) | 39 (6) | 49 (3) | 36 (6) | 78 (2) | 77 (2) | 65 (4) | 46 (3) | 43 | 21 | - | 18 | 57 | 47 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Makeit Eddied 1y 34 | F J Gray — 20% R353 W71 P188 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 37 (5) | 31 (6) | 38 (5) | 37 (3) | 58 (1) | 36 (3) | 21 (4) | 30 (1) | 22 (4) | - | 16 | 43 | 23 | 43 | 24 | 28 | 6 | 9/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Spiffingd 4y 25 | D D Porter — 17% R527 W90 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 28 (2) | 20 (5) | 29 (3) | 32 (1) | 24 (2) | 30 (1) | 23 (3) | 23 (4) | 26 (3) | 27 (2) | 31 | 34 | 32 | 34 | 25 | 28 | 3 | 10/3 | |
Makeit Lauren tops the prediction with the field's best avgPerf (37) and a profile built for sprints: EP 100 and bend rating 92 — the second-highest bend rating on the entire card today. At 270m where the race is decided in the single turn, that bend superiority (92 vs next best 65 from Franco Jon Jo who's in Race 12) is a major advantage. She drops from D3 where she placed 2nd (P26, slow away, came from 2nd at run-in) — that D3 2nd confirms she's competitive at a higher grade and the class drop to D4 provides meaningful relief. Her form is mixed between 270m and 500m at Towcester: a P57 A8 500m win, P35 and P31 at A8 500m. The 500m form shows genuine pace ability. Speed 52 is field-second-best. Trainer Gray at 28% and specifically 33.33% from 27 runs at Towcester 270m D4 conditions — a strong-tier signal. Suitability is solid: track 40, distance 36, trap 44, class 35. The concern: T1 is actually below average at these conditions (17.9% from 352 runs), which is a structural headwind. But her bend rating 92 from the rail should overcome the aggregate disadvantage — she'll handle the bend better than anyone else regardless of trap position.
DANGER — but an unconventional one. The T4 structural dominance at 27.49% and speed 62 (field-best) from a dog with AP 57 (20 points above average) are signals too strong to dismiss entirely. The 712m form shows genuine class. But bend 9 at a 270m sprint where the bend decides everything is a severe mismatch. If he somehow navigates the bend without losing too much ground, the raw speed could carry him. A speculative danger at best.
Won at D5 last time but stepping up to D4 with only three races on record. Low suitability scores and limited experience make it hard to assess her ceiling. The T2 draw helps but the class question is unanswered.
Has a D4 win but recent form reads 4th, 5th, 5th with a declining trajectory. Even a clear run last time only produced P20 (4th). T3 structural advantage (22.59%) is the only positive — the form doesn't support a selection.
Has a D4 win but habitual slow starts (SAw/VSAw) from T5 with field-lowest speed (44) and trap suit (16) make him hard to trust at a 270m sprint. The Gray stable knows when to run this dog but today's draw doesn't help.
The most consistent runner with four consecutive frame finishes at D4 — but always from wide, always closing. The T6 below-average position and wide-running style at 270m mean he'll be 3rd-4th again rather than winning. Reliable placer but unlikely winner.
2044 runs. NORMAL separation (R1 24.92% vs R3 17.19% = 7.73pp). T4 is extremely dominant at 27.49% — nearly 11pp above expected. T1 is actually below average at 17.9%, which is a structural headwind for the pick. Speed rank 1 wins 26.68% — fastest dog matters. F J Gray at 33.33% from 27 runs is a strong trainer signal at these conditions.
T1:17.9%(352) T2:20.05%(414) T3:22.59%(425) T4:27.49%(371) T5:20.22%(267) T6:16.74%(215)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.