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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Salacres Bereziab 3y 6 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 26 (5) | 35 (2) | 33 (3) | 36 (1) | 28 (4) | 29 (5) | 31 (4) | 36 (2) | 32 (3) | 42 (1) | 55 | 43 | 42 | 42 | 35 | 39 | 4 | 5/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Baggios Hazeb 2y 7 | D D Porter — 17% R522 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 100 | 20 (6) | 29 (3) | 29 (4) | 21 (5) | 36 (1) | 23 (5) | 28 (3) | 32 (2) | 34 (2) | 34 (3) | 38 | 51 | 15 | 51 | 35 | 39 | 1 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ The Rising Sunb 1y 6 | N J Deas — 17% R449 W76 P247 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 29 (5) | 40 (3) | 44 (1) | 35 (3) | 36 (4) | 42 (1) | 23 (4) | 36 (1) | 30 (3) | 35 (1) | 64 | 45 | - | 45 | 30 | 37 | 5 | 8/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Franco Jon Jod 2y 28 | L G Tuffin — 25% R275 W69 P144 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 65 | 43 (1) | 36 (5) | 37 (4) | 58 (5) | 43 (2) | 39 (2) | 42 (2) | 39 (2) | 33 (3) | 37 (3) | 29 | 23 | - | 23 | 60 | 48 | 2 | 5/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Dashing Tomd 3y 25 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 20 | 53 (5) | 26 (6) | 48 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 35 | 46 | - | 37 | 43 | 42 | 3 | 9/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Dupalight Boyd 3y 14 | D D Porter — 17% R522 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 32 (5) | 34 (3) | 34 (3) | 32 (3) | 38 (4) | 38 (3) | 38 (3) | 35 (3) | 37 (3) | - | 35 | 15 | 36 | 15 | 34 | 30 | 6 | 9/4F | |
Baggios Haze is the models projected winner with the best h3Score at 89.32 and a substantial 17.95 point gap over second place Franco Jon Jo at 71.375. Drawn in T2 which wins 21.3% from 423 runs at D2 270m Towcester a solid structural position. His suitability profile is led by track suit 51 and distance suit 51 confirming a genuine affinity for Towcester 270m. Recent form reads 2nd-3rd-1st at Towcester with the win coming in D3 grade. The critical concern is his pace profile as a Closer with EP 50 and CS 78. At 270m there is physically very little race to close in and the general sprint principle says early pace and bend ability decide these races not closing speed. His current performance of 34 is mid-field and his pace rating of 77 is decent but not dominant. The model likes him on suitability and composite but the Closer label at sprint distance is a genuine structural mismatch that introduces significant uncertainty. This is a speculative selection because while the model strongly projects him the pace profile question at 270m cannot be answered with confidence.
Consistent D2 270m Towcester form of 3rd-1st-2nd from last three runs. Strong suitability across all dimensions. T1 at 21.9% is a favoured draw. The main danger with pace, rail, and course form all supporting a challenge.
Drawn in the dominant T3 (25.8% from 391 runs) with the best trap suitability (64) and best pace rating (81). Trial winner last time. But D2 form is poor and class suitability of 0 means the grade may be beyond him. The trap and pace give him a live chance.
Extreme Fader (EP 94 CS 37) who could blaze early and hold on at 270m where the trip may not be long enough for the fade to materialise. Second on h3Score but modest suitability. A pace threat more than a form threat.
Highest raw performance at 53 but achieved at a different track and distance. Dead T5 draw at 13.1% from 268 runs. Last Towcester 270m run was a 6th. The numbers look good on paper but fall apart under scrutiny. Unlikely to feature.
Three consecutive 3rds at D2 270m Towcester show reliability but not winning ability. T6 at 16.0% is below expected. Low track and distance suitability at 15 each. The honest plodder of the field who will be thereabouts but faces a tough ask to break his placing sequence.
Towcester 270m D2 has strong data depth at 2033 runs. T3 dominates at 25.8% from 391 runs and T1 and T2 are both above expected. The picks T2 at 21.3% from 423 runs is solid structurally. However the pick is a Closer at a sprint distance which is a fundamental pace profile mismatch. Composite rank 1 wins 24.1% from 919 runs with 7.8pp separation over rank 3 which is NORMAL but at 270m sprints pace profile can override composite signals.
T1:21.9% T2:21.3% T3:25.8% T4:19.5% T5:13.1% T6:16.0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.