| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Blackheath Ellenb 3y 19 | F Bryce — 27% R59 W16 P36 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 54 | 82 (1) | 71 (2) | 67 (3) | 64 (2) | 62 (2) | 67 (2) | 75 (3) | 69 (2) | 82 (1) | 78 (3) | 42 | 32 | 16 | 45 | 72 | 50 | 1 | 5/6F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mustang Darwind 3y 25 | J A Danahar — 19% R306 W59 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 50 | 57 (3) | 53 (4) | 82 (1) | 31 (6) | 82 (1) | 25 (5) | 46 (6) | 80 (1) | 77 (2) | 50 (4) | 43 | 45 | 44 | 41 | 61 | 36 | 2 | 6/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Quivers Rexd 3y 19 | J A Danahar — 19% R306 W59 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 52 | 80 (1) | 74 (1) | 55 (3) | 74 (1) | 49 (4) | 34 (6) | 52 (4) | 63 (5) | 28 (3) | 53 (5) | 48 | 19 | - | 51 | 63 | 46 | 6 | 12/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Bluejig Bobbyd 3y 210 | J A Danahar — 19% R306 W59 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 43 | 84 (1) | 75 (1) | 49 (5) | 68 (2) | 72 (1) | 74 (1) | 64 (2) | 57 (4) | 73 (1) | 58 (3) | 33 | 41 | 30 | 58 | 69 | 45 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Santas Rangerd 3y 25 | D S Davy — 21% R440 W91 P279 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 54 | 61 (3) | 50 (5) | 74 (2) | 80 (1) | 55 (3) | 65 (3) | 63 (4) | 65 (4) | 86 (1) | 58 (4) | 42 | 38 | 43 | 30 | 64 | 45 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ashway Joed 2y 19 | A G Rawlings — 20% R217 W44 P127 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 48 | 84 (1) | 49 (6) | 56 (4) | 78 (1) | 55 (4) | 54 (5) | 69 (3) | 51 (5) | 47 (4) | 68 (2) | 36 | 34 | 21 | 34 | 63 | 45 | 4 | 11/4 | - | |
An outstanding profile for this race. Carries speed rank 1 in the field, performance rank 1 by a clear margin (avgP=72, nine points above the next best), and the highest early pace score in the field (EP=100). She is a Fader by profile — meaning she builds speed through the race — and has five consecutive runs of improving performance ratings: 62, 64, 67, 71 and 82 in her most recent starts, finishing that sequence with a win last time out. The trajectory here is genuinely significant. Trap 1 wins 19.8% at A3 Valley 460m — the third-best draw and comfortably above the worst positions. She has won from trap 1 before and the early pace score suggests she contests the early bend hard enough to make the trap difference manageable. Course and distance record of 1 win from 7 is modest but she has not been at this peak of form before. The quality gap to the rest of this field is the decisive factor.
DANGER: Extraordinary course-and-distance record (50%) and won last time. Hard to ignore despite the worst structural draw and Closer profile at early-pace-favouring Valley.
Best structural draw in the race but EP=0 — a Closer with no early speed at a track where front pace is decisive. Difficult to rank above the selection despite the trap advantage.
Decent draw and average profile for this grade. No particular edge over the rest of the chasing pack. Fourth-best speed in the field limits his claims.
Good course-and-distance record but worst speed in the field. At a pace-sensitive track this makes him hard to recommend ahead of others.
Won last time at this grade and level with a high reading but inconsistent profile. Speed and early pace below the selection. Hard to dismiss entirely given the recent win.
Speed rank 1 wins 25.9% at Valley A3 460m — dominant signal. Trap 3 leads at 20.6%, trap 4 worst at 14.6%. Performance rank 1 wins 23.2%. Six-runner field — quality gap between Ellen and the rest.
T1:19.8% T2:16.8% T3:20.6% T4:14.6% T5:20.2% T6:18.3%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Blackheath Ellen | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Mustang Darwin | 52 | 41 | All-Rounder |
3Quivers Rex | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Bluejig Bobby | 41 | 73 | Closer |
5Santas Ranger | 53 | 51 | All-Rounder |
6Ashway Joe | 48 | 49 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 253m | 260m | 450m | 460m | 645m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackheath Ellen | 0.607 | — | 0.603 | 0.630 | — |
| 2 | Mustang Darwin | — | 0.651 | — | 0.638 | — |
| 3 | Quivers Rex | — | 0.642 | — | 0.636 | 0.656 |
| 4 | Bluejig Bobby | — | — | — | 0.632 | — |
| 5 | Santas Ranger | — | — | — | 0.632 | — |
| 6 | Ashway Joe | — | — | — | 0.635 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.