The model's selection and the runner with the highest early pace in the race at 66 — well clear of her nearest rival. A Fader profile combined with peak early pace is the optimal combination for Valley's 460m, where position through the first bend determines the race outcome and Faders naturally attack the bends. Speed of 57 is joint-highest in the field alongside Affleck Salsabil. Her last race produced a second place with a performance rating of 75 — the best recent run in the race by a wide margin — and she finished second with a C&D placing from two runs here. The significant handicap is trap 3, which wins only 12.9% at A4 — the worst draw in the race by a clear margin. The model resolves this by prioritising her early pace and performance quality over the statistical trap disadvantage, and the analytical case rests on whether her dominant early pace reading (66 vs the 58 of Affleck Salsabil) is large enough to overcome the worst draw on the card.