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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Crokers Antond 4y 14 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1203 W177 P608 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 25 (2) | 23 (4) | 21 (5) | 25 (2) | 18 (6) | 23 (4) | 31 (1) | 24 (2) | 30 (1) | 20 (3) | 32 | 27 | 31 | 33 | 24 | 27 | 1 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballygibba Livb 4y 53 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1203 W177 P608 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | - | 15 (4) | 27 (1) | 19 (5) | 23 (2) | 19 (5) | 16 (5) | 12 (6) | 23 (3) | 27 (1) | 23 (2) | 27 | 20 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Breffni Tinab 2y 16 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1203 W177 P608 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 39 (4) | 16 (5) | 20 (6) | 19 (4) | 20 (5) | 25 (2) | 16 (6) | 30 (1) | 16 (5) | 24 (1) | 19 | 22 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Flomur Fionab 3y 5 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1203 W177 P608 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 27 (1) | 23 (2) | 26 (2) | 22 (2) | 16 (6) | 26 (2) | 24 (2) | 16 (4) | 22 (2) | 19 (3) | 32 | 21 | 25 | 50 | 23 | 27 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Mylerstown Sageb 3y 15 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1203 W177 P608 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 15 (5) | 16 (6) | 18 (6) | 25 (4) | 24 (3) | 32 (1) | 25 (3) | 30 (1) | 21 (4) | 20 (5) | 31 | 29 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Not To Worrieb 3y 5 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1203 W177 P608 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 25 (4) | 29 (2) | 27 (2) | 28 (3) | 25 (3) | 31 (1) | 24 (2) | 25 (2) | 28 (1) | 21 (4) | 55 | 35 | 21 | 34 | 27 | 33 | 2 | 4/5F | - | |
The model's selection in a race that is genuinely difficult to separate analytically. Crokers Anton has two wins from ten course and distance runs at Valley — matching Not To Worrie's C&D record exactly — and a speed rating of 59, joint-highest in the field. The analytical case rests almost entirely on pace quality: at Valley's 260-metre sprint, speed rank 1 wins 31.7%, the dominant predictor, and Crokers Anton's joint-best speed mark alongside Not To Worrie is the primary justification for the selection. The critical problem is trap 1, which wins only 14.9% at D5 from 671 runs — with trap 6 winning 24.0%, the structural draw disadvantage between the selection and his main rival is a 9.1 percentage point gap that is very significant at this grade. This is a tentative selection with low conviction, driven by the model's composite rank rather than a strong analytical convergence. Not To Worrie from trap 6 has every right to beat this horse on any reasonable reading of the data.
Best draw at D5 with the highest composite, matched speed, and matched C&D record to the selection. Equally valid pick — draw advantage makes her the clearest danger on the card.
Good draw position but insufficient pace to exploit it against the speed leaders in this field.
Decent trap draw but insufficient form data and low average performance make assessment speculative.
Fresh form from a grade win but in the worst trap at D5. The structural disadvantage significantly limits her chance despite current form.
Excellent trap position but declining form undermines the draw advantage. Statistical opportunity not backed by current ability.
D5 at Valley has extreme outer bias: T6 (24.0%) and T5 (23.1%) together win 47.1% from 671 runs. T1 (14.9%) and T4 (14.1%) are worst. Speed rank 1 wins 31.7% at Valley 260m. This race is analytically very close with the selection at a significant draw disadvantage.
T1:14.9% T2:21.8% T3:20.8% T4:14.1% T5:23.1% T6:24.0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 260m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (260m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crokers Anton | 0.647 | — |
| 2 | Ballygibba Liv | 0.659 | — |
| 3 | Breffni Tina | 0.653 | 0.653 |
| 4 | Flomur Fiona | 0.658 | — |
| 5 | Mylerstown Sage | 0.649 | — |
| 6 | Not To Worrie | 0.646 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.