Sober Ballad boasts the best recent form sequence in the field when he's right — back-to-back performances of 80 from two course and distance wins at A4, both achieved with strong finishes rather than front-running. His last two races have been disappointing at 59 and 45, but both involved trouble — 'forced to check' and 'slow away' respectively. With a clean run, he's the classiest dog in the field, and his ability to finish strongly means the downhill front-runner bias at Kinsley is less of a concern than it would be for a slower-starting type. Trap 2 is bang on expected at 17.1 percent from these conditions. The question is whether he can avoid the early crowding that has compromised his last two.