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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ballymac Dashelb 2y 16 | A M Kibble — 24% R185 W45 P115 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 37 | 52 | 35 (5) | 59 (1) | 56 (4) | 39 (5) | 50 (5) | 50 (4) | 48 (5) | 79 (1) | 60 (4) | 67 (3) | 35 | 25 | - | 24 | 51 | 32 | 6 | 7/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Hitthelids Kellyb 2y 17 | N J Deas — 17% R454 W76 P242 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 50 | 59 (1) | 58 (1) | 42 (3) | 45 (3) | 45 (2) | 55 (2) | 46 (4) | 50 (5) | 68 (1) | 20 (6) | 41 | 32 | - | 48 | 51 | 43 | 1 | 6/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Bridgestreet Alib 2y 34 | K J Crocker — 16% R144 W23 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 44 | 55 (3) | 60 (3) | 40 (6) | 58 (1) | 24 (5) | 33 (2) | 90 (1) | 35 (5) | 52 (3) | - | 27 | 23 | - | 30 | 50 | 33 | 4 | 6/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Bambis Missb 2y 19 | D D Porter — 17% R537 W92 P291 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 54 | 59 (1) | 38 (5) | 58 (1) | 44 (4) | 38 (3) | 55 (2) | 43 (2) | 47 (3) | 30 (6) | 53 (3) | 40 | 29 | - | 37 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Coppice Thomasd 3y 10 | C L Conley — 25% R53 W13 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 53 | 60 (1) | 44 (4) | 38 (4) | 37 (5) | 68 (3) | 86 (1) | 68 (3) | 73 (3) | 59 (4) | 80 (1) | 25 | 18 | - | 21 | 57 | 45 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Jazzy Vibed 2y 15 | C L Conley — 25% R53 W13 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 46 | 59 (1) | 35 (4) | 32 (4) | 35 (3) | 28 (4) | 60 (4) | 60 (4) | 49 (6) | 52 (4) | 71 (2) | 9 | 17 | - | 27 | 45 | 35 | 5 | 7/2 | - | |
The fastest dog in the field on the speed rating (57) and the joint-top composite score — the only runner where both speed and model agree at this level. Won at B3 460m last time out (P60, the best winning performance among the recent course and distance winners in this race) and has one win from four starts at this track and trip. The form shows a dip through the middle of the trajectory (P38, P44) but the trajectory ends with a win — the most recent run is the best guide. A Fader with maximum early pace, she gets to the first bend quickly and holds position through Towcester's demanding layout. Trap 5 at 20.0% is respectable. The combination of speed leadership, composite leadership, Fader profile and a recent win at this exact grade makes her the most compelling selection.
DANGER: Best course and distance record in the field (40% win rate from 5 runs), recent winner at this exact grade and distance. Narrowly loses out to the selection on raw speed but is the most dangerous threat.
Best trap position but slowest speed in field and Closer profile. Trap advantage is real but insufficient to offset the pace mismatch.
Dropping from higher grades but the worst trap and Closer profile are significant disadvantages at Towcester 460m.
Consistent course and distance performer stepping up one grade. B4 win last time is encouraging but the recent B3 winners in this race are ahead of her on the evidence.
Structural dead draw in these conditions (5.3% trap win rate) combined with Closer profile and no early pace. Hard to see a winning scenario.
Very small sample (129 runs) — treat all percentages with caution. Trap 6 at 5.3% from 19 runs is a clear structural dead draw. Trap 1 leads at 26.1% from 23 runs. The composite model is unreliable here (13.6% for rank 1) — individual form and pace analysis must drive the selection.
T1:26.1% T2:21.7% T3:13.0% T4:19.1% T5:20.0% T6:5.3%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ballymac Dashel | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Hitthelids Kelly | 91 | 0 | Fader |
3Bridgestreet Ali | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Bambis Miss | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Coppice Thomas | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Jazzy Vibe | 9 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 325m | 450m | 460m | 500m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ballymac Dashel | — | — | 0.615 | 0.603 | — | — |
| 2 | Hitthelids Kelly | 0.621 | — | — | 0.600 | 0.603 | — |
| 3 | Bridgestreet Ali | 0.614 | 0.572 | — | 0.598 | 0.603 | 0.553 |
| 4 | Bambis Miss | — | — | — | 0.598 | 0.610 | — |
| 5 | Coppice Thomas | — | — | 0.614 | 0.600 | — | — |
| 6 | Jazzy Vibe | 0.608 | — | 0.614 | 0.601 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.