The predicted winner but there are genuine concerns about the selection. He's a confirmed closer with the lowest early pace score in the race and trap 5 is structurally dead at just 13.3% from 166 runs. At 261 metres, closing speed is essentially irrelevant — there isn't enough track to close on anything. His class edge is clear, having raced at D2 level and with higher performance figures than most of this field, and his speed rating of 54 is strong. The recent form shows he's been competitive at D2 with figures around 29-30 without winning, and the drop to D3 is a class relief. But the pace profile mismatch at this sprint distance is a genuine structural problem.