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Doncaster 450 Winner of One
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tromora Jennyb 2y 25 | E O Driver — 21% R306 W64 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 68 | 0 | 61 (4) | 52 (5) | 78 (4) | 80 (2) | 85 (3) | 82 (2) | 88 (2) | 70 (1) | 71 (3) | - | 47 | - | - | - | 72 | 42 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Hello Youngfellad 1y 22 | C D Marston — 13% R450 W57 P210 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 5 | 51 | 46 (5) | 48 (3) | 61 (5) | 63 (4) | 67 (5) | 100 (1) | 49 (4) | 60 (5) | 36 (5) | 46 (3) | 32 | 18 | 12 | - | 57 | 9 | 3 | 20/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Newline Kieltyb 2y 25 | D Golightly — 25% R8 W2 P7 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | 61 | 92 (1) | 80 (2) | 75 (3) | 53 (5) | 71 (3) | 62 (3) | 78 (4) | 61 (1) | 82 (1) | 54 (2) | 4 | 37 | 17 | 35 | 74 | 48 | 1 | 8/13F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Senahel Scorpiond 2y 14 | D E Fradgley — 18% R107 W19 P54 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 25 | 50 | 46 (5) | 90 (1) | 58 (5) | 68 (2) | 71 (2) | 53 (5) | 66 (2) | 80 (1) | 79 (1) | 56 (3) | 28 | 23 | 20 | 23 | 66 | 24 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Swift Melb 2y 13 | R A Draper — 28% R279 W77 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 99 | 0 | 40 (2) | 37 (3) | 52 (3) | 54 (4) | 45 (1) | 42 (1) | 26 (6) | 41 (1) | 79 (1) | 80 (1) | 1 | - | - | - | 56 | 51 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Kates Goldied 3y 35 | C D Marston — 13% R450 W57 P210 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 58 | 66 (2) | 59 (3) | 74 (2) | 85 (1) | 63 (3) | 77 (1) | 47 (5) | 76 (1) | 73 (1) | 52 (4) | 30 | 18 | 36 | 18 | 68 | 25 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
Newline Kielty presents the most compelling danger case of the evening — three composite points behind the pick at 48.0, but with outstanding suitability credentials: track suitability 37, distance suitability 35, a first bend rating of 61, and average performance 74.0 — the highest of any runner in this race. This is a proven Doncaster 450m performer with genuine physical credentials and the most balanced set of supporting metrics. In most model frameworks, a three-point composite gap accompanied by this level of suitability and performance superiority would support a pick. Only the strict composite rule prevents the override at gap 3. Treat as a virtual co-favourite.
Tentative composite pick — zero suitability and lower avgPerf mean this pick carries the highest override risk of any race today
High avgPerf and strong trap affinity from T1 — nine-point composite gap is the obstacle to a realistic winning claim
Background runner — twenty-six point composite deficit with limited suitability in a race dominated by the top two
Outsider — twenty-seven point composite gap with modest suitability in a race where the top two are clearly superior
Outsider — forty-two point composite deficit and zero distance suitability in the final race of the evening meeting
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tromora Jenny | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Hello Youngfella | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Newline Kielty | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Senahel Scorpion | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Swift Mel | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Kates Goldie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 210m | 275m | 280m | 305m | 335m | 435m | 450m | 462m | 480m | 500m | 525m | 630m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tromora Jenny | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.610 | — | 0.611 |
| 2 | Hello Youngfella | 0.617 | 0.627 | 0.592 | 0.612 | — | 0.611 | 0.640 | — | — | — | 0.577 | — |
| 3 | Newline Kielty | — | 0.625 | — | — | 0.555 | 0.616 | 0.618 | — | — | — | 0.552 | — |
| 4 | Senahel Scorpion | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.630 | 0.618 | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | Swift Mel | — | — | 0.583 | — | — | — | 0.636 | — | — | 0.594 | — | — |
| 6 | Kates Goldie | — | — | — | — | — | 0.615 | 0.624 | — | 0.607 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.