@NewcastleDogs On Twitter Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Fine By Meb 3y 17 | P Rutherford — 19% R333 W63 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 56 | 55 (5) | 56 (5) | 67 (4) | 68 (3) | 82 (1) | 69 (2) | 65 (3) | 69 (2) | 75 (1) | 59 (3) | 46 | 42 | 31 | 42 | 66 | 58 | 4 | 7/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ So Its Lillieb 2y 16 | S Caile — 14% R186 W26 P95 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 47 | 64 (3) | 69 (3) | 62 (3) | 77 (1) | 43 (5) | 77 (1) | 73 (1) | 64 (2) | 74 (1) | 57 (3) | 37 | 48 | - | 44 | 66 | 58 | 2 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Sixsevensixsevend 2y 4 | J T Edgar — 16% R484 W79 P273 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 37 | 62 (2) | 54 (4) | 59 (2) | 68 (2) | 60 (3) | 54 (4) | 76 (2) | 56 (5) | 72 (2) | 44 (5) | 62 | 55 | - | 55 | 60 | 59 | 3 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Maizys Banditd 2y 35 | D Winder — 19% R134 W25 P60 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 55 | 27 (3) | 56 (6) | 81 (4) | 76 (1) | 59 (1) | 53 (3) | 64 (5) | 45 (3) | 73 (3) | - | 35 | 42 | 30 | 39 | 65 | 56 | 6 | 9/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Blackhouse Flockd 3y 5 | S Ray — 14% R414 W60 P222 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 50 | 43 (5) | 50 (5) | 63 (4) | 46 (5) | 77 (1) | 12 (5) | 22 (5) | 57 (1) | 56 (2) | - | 35 | 47 | 53 | 34 | 71 | 60 | 1 | 9/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Lets Go Dutchd 2y 17 | J J Fenwick — 19% R500 W96 P287 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 49 | 81 (1) | 63 (3) | 67 (2) | 62 (4) | 70 (3) | 67 (2) | 60 (4) | 68 (3) | 64 (5) | 87 (1) | 31 | 41 | 40 | 36 | 67 | 56 | 5 | 13/8F | |
The dominant form runner in the field — perf 71 is 4 points clear of the next best, and his recent competitive form of 81→81→77→82 is exceptional at any level, let alone A3. Three performances of 81 or above in his last four A3 starts, including back-to-back wins, represents elite consistency. He's an All-Rounder (EP 54, CS 39, PaceCon 87) with balanced pace that suits Newcastle's fair track — he won't lead but he'll be prominent throughout and his class advantage means he can sustain pressure that weaker dogs can't. Speed 54 is the second-best in the field, and his suit mean 42 is strong (class suit 53 is the highest, confirming A3 is his level). Ray at 12% is below the trainer awareness tier, which is the one concern — none of the top trainers at A3 conditions are represented with this dog. But his raw form overrides trainer concerns. Drawn T5 at 16.3% — the second-worst trap, but the class override applies: perf 71 is 6+ points above the field average (~65.8), and his consistent elite form means the trap disadvantage is a risk factor rather than a dealbreaker. He's been racing in A2 recently (67, 57 perfs — lower there) which confirms A3 is where he dominates. The 82 perf from his last A3 start is a statement run.
DANGER: 50% CD win rate is remarkable, Caile at 30% is the best trainer at conditions, and the Closer profile suits Newcastle perfectly. Worst trap (T2 at 14.8%) prevents a confident pick, but if the pick falters she's the one who takes it.
Reliable A3 performer with strong consistent form (59-75 range) but perf 66 leaves him 5 points behind the pick. Will be in contention from the rail without being able to close the class gap.
Best trap and best suitability in the field, but erratic form (44 to 77 range) and perf 60 is 11 points below the pick. Structural condition advantage without the consistency to exploit it reliably.
Proven CD winner (40%) with an 81-perf peak, but five-run declining trajectory (81→76→59→53→64→45) makes him hard to trust. The form is going the wrong way for a confident pick.
Best speed (59) and strong consistent form (60-70 range) make him a factor, but perf 67 is 4 points below the pick. Fenwick's trainer signal is positive but not enough to bridge the class gap. Will finish well for 3rd.
T3 is the best trap at 22.4% from 295 runs. T2 is the worst at 14.8% from 330 runs. Notably, R2 beats R1 (20.4% vs 18.4%) — upsets are common at A3. S Caile wins 30.0% from 20 runs at these conditions — a strong-tier signal. A Harrison at 24.0% from 25 runs and J J Fenwick at 23.3% from 43 runs are also strong.
T1:20.9% T2:14.8% T3:22.4% T4:19.5% T5:16.3% T6:16.7%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Fine By Me | 54 | 24 | All-Rounder |
2So Its Lillie | 44 | 61 | Closer |
3Sixsevensixseven | 36 | 72 | Closer |
4Maizys Bandit | 53 | 28 | All-Rounder |
5Blackhouse Flock | 54 | 39 | All-Rounder |
6Lets Go Dutch | 47 | 68 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.