Headford Spider has the best bend rating in this field at 58, and at Nottingham's 500 metres where the tight first bend is often the decisive moment, that matters enormously. He races as an all-rounder with the pace to be prominent early and the stamina to sustain his effort. His form shows a brilliant 91 when winning three starts back, and while his last three runs of 55, 67 and 62 have been below that peak, they've been solid enough. His trap suitability of 50 from the 5 box is encouraging, and he handles this course with a track suitability of 43. In a low-separation field where raw ratings barely separate the top four, his structural advantage through the first bend tips the balance.