FROM TRAPS TO TRIUMPH STAKES
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Nylas Dancerb 2y 27 | M E Wiley — 19% R508 W95 P263 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 53 | 38 (3) | 22 (6) | 49 (1) | 46 (1) | 56 (1) | 37 (5) | 39 (4) | 23 (5) | 21 (6) | 54 (1) | 34 | 27 | 23 | 36 | 39 | 37 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mohican Honeyb 1y 4 | D K Hurlock — 19% R927 W178 P513 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 46 | 37 (2) | 57 (1) | 52 (4) | 59 (3) | 31 (5) | 52 (4) | 48 (5) | 44 (6) | 30 (5) | 39 (3) | 18 | 22 | 26 | 35 | 46 | 43 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Drovers Romanyd 4y 26 | M E Westwood — 13% R252 W33 P120 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 49 | 57 (1) | 38 (2) | 26 (6) | 28 (6) | 35 (3) | 58 (1) | 37 (6) | 23 (6) | 58 (3) | 38 (5) | 30 | 23 | 23 | 43 | 40 | 45 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Saleen Blazed 2y 15 | A Kelly-pilgrim — 16% R221 W35 P101 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 48 | 55 (1) | 36 (5) | 48 (2) | 35 (4) | 35 (3) | 29 (4) | 21 (6) | 12 (6) | 37 (5) | 41 (3) | 12 | 13 | - | 22 | 38 | 35 | 6 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Pricey Emmab 2y 5 | D K Hurlock — 19% R927 W178 P513 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 62 | 23 (6) | 35 (4) | 42 (2) | 36 (4) | 30 (5) | 31 (5) | 45 (4) | 47 (1) | 34 (2) | 31 (3) | 23 | 25 | 17 | 20 | 34 | 43 | 5 | 15/8F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ False Timed 1y 15 | P W Young — 18% R1312 W233 P739 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 48 | 29 (5) | 57 (1) | 42 (2) | 40 (4) | 28 (6) | 41 (3) | 39 (4) | 39 (3) | 18 (6) | - | - | 15 | - | 20 | 39 | 38 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
The required model selection, and the honest assessment is that the structural and form evidence creates significant doubt. Trap 6 at A11 wins only 12.5% — the weakest draw in the race — and her composite of 38 is fourth in a six-runner field. Her most recent run (P29 last week) is a poor performance in A11 company, though the run before that was a P57. The form trajectory shows the volatility typical of A11 grade with no clear directional trend. The model has elected her based on factors that are not immediately obvious from the available metrics — possibly field-speed or pace-map alignment — but the structural case for her is weak. Her trap suitability score of zero indicates she has no recorded wins from trap 6 in the dataset, making this the most structurally challenging selection of the day. She would need her rivals to have a troubled race to compensate for both the draw and the recent poor form.
Composite R1, strongest draw on the card, recent winner — analytically the pick of this race and primary danger to all rivals.
Third in A10 last time has claims from trap 1, but declining recent form trajectory at lower grade level is a concern.
Second in this race last week — strong place claims and a credible alternative to the selection from an acceptable draw.
Won A12 last week like Drovers Romany but significantly inferior draw and weakest track suit in the field make her the weaker of the two A12 risers.
Composite looks misleading given consistently poor running form — sixth in A10 last time is a difficult recent reference.
Trap 3 dominates at A11 (22.99%) — the strongest single-trap advantage at any grade on this card. Trap 6 the weakest (12.5%). At A11 the variance is high but trap 3 is the most powerful structural draw in today's programme.
T1:18.5% T2:17.0% T3:22.99% T4:14.8% T5:14.2% T6:12.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 400m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Nylas Dancer | 53 | 38 | All-Rounder |
2Mohican Honey | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Drovers Romany | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Saleen Blaze | 53 | 35 | All-Rounder |
5Pricey Emma | 65 | 14 | Fader |
6False Time | 47 | 62 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 400m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (400m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 400m | 575m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nylas Dancer | 0.632 | — |
| 2 | Mohican Honey | 0.628 | 0.640 |
| 3 | Drovers Romany | 0.627 | 0.648 |
| 4 | Saleen Blaze | 0.633 | — |
| 5 | Pricey Emma | 0.627 | — |
| 6 | False Time | 0.630 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.