The required model selection, and the statistical case is built on a two-run career that has produced consistently promising output — P63 and P67, both at A4 here, both producing performances that put him firmly in contention at this level from the start. An average performance of 65 from just two runs is the highest in today's five-runner field, suggesting he is a talented young dog who may have more development ahead. He came second last time out, pushing the winner close, and the consistency of his two runs (only four points apart) is unusual for such an inexperienced runner. The uncertainty is that two runs is a very small sample — we cannot know how he will handle a full competitive season — but on merit, the raw performance numbers suggest he belongs at A4 and may yet improve further.