Dominant speed in the field at 59 — 8 points clear of Not To Worrie and 6 points above Cill Dubh Minnie. At Valley D4 260m, speed rank 1 wins 26.1% of races — the highest predictive factor at this grade and distance. Spice Bag holds that speed rank convincingly. The composite of 30 is second in the field, behind Not To Worrie at 31 — a 1-point margin that is analytically negligible. Trap 2 at 17.6% is a below-average structural draw, and this is the main concern. Not To Worrie in trap 6 enjoys the second-best structural position at 20.6%. However, at 260m the speed advantage of 8 points is more decisive than a 3-percentage-point structural draw difference. Speed drives pace off the first bend, and a dog 8 points faster in speed rating will typically reach the bend in better position even from a less favourable box. Average performance of 28 is solid for D4 grade. The tentative confidence reflects the structural draw concern and the 1-point composite deficit to Not To Worrie, but the speed dominance at a sprint distance is the strongest single analytical factor and it points clearly to Spice Bag.