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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Patokad 3y 5 | J B Thompson — 19% R515 W100 P281 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 54 | 54 (5) | 52 (5) | 82 (1) | 50 (5) | 56 (4) | 77 (1) | 58 (4) | 62 (4) | 61 (4) | 78 (1) | 44 | 57 | 30 | 39 | 50 | 49 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Away Jazzd 4y 16 | K Billingham-hine — 18% R605 W109 P343 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 72 | 53 (4) | 26 (6) | 51 (4) | 65 (3) | 78 (1) | 51 (4) | 59 (5) | 60 (3) | 32 (5) | 72 (2) | 41 | 57 | 54 | 43 | 59 | 55 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Aero Sophieb 2y 25 | R Taberner — 20% R721 W143 P411 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 48 | 68 (3) | 62 (5) | 79 (3) | 63 (4) | 49 (5) | 69 (4) | 49 (6) | 56 (3) | 79 (2) | 91 (1) | 59 | 56 | 40 | 41 | 68 | 62 | 2 | 11/8F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Catchem Flawlessd 3y 25 | K Billingham-hine — 18% R605 W109 P343 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 40 | 52 (4) | 65 (3) | 77 (1) | 63 (3) | 64 (3) | 59 (3) | 53 (4) | 73 (2) | 59 (4) | 64 (3) | 39 | 42 | 39 | 28 | 69 | 58 | 1 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ruinthelonggamed 3y 26 | G A Griffiths — 21% R155 W32 P71 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 51 | 48 (1) | 38 (3) | 42 (2) | 43 (1) | 57 (2) | 31 (6) | 53 (4) | 38 (3) | 60 (2) | 37 (6) | 55 | 52 | 30 | 36 | 49 | 49 | 4 | 10/3 | - | |
The pick, and the reasoning is about the class drop. She has been running consistently at A2 grade — finishing 4th, 3rd, and 2nd in her last three A2 outings, with a 3rd at Open Race grade before that. Those are competitive positions at a grade above today's race. Dropping to A3, those placings at A2 should translate into winning or placing territory. She has the joint-best speed rating in the field at 56, the best pace consistency at 91 (meaning she delivers the same effort virtually every time), and a strong closing speed ratio of 73. At Monmore's fair 480m track, her Closer profile has the room and the straights to overtake the fading leader. Her suitability scores are excellent: track suitability of 56, distance suitability of 41, and trap suitability of 59 — the best in the field from the best-performing draw (Trap 3 at 19.4% from 155 runs). Her overall performance figures of 74, 84, 66, 22, 22 look alarming on the surface — but those 22s are from A2 races where she finished 3rd and 4th, with the performance algorithm scoring them harshly due to the grade adjustment component. Her actual race positions at A2 level tell the real story: she is competitive at a higher grade and should find A3 well within her range. Trainer Taberner has a 22% win rate at A3.
DANGER: Best closing speed in the field (82), proven A3 winner, and the strongest trainer. But the declining trajectory (82 to 72 to 51 over three runs) and lower suitability scores put her behind Aero Sophie, whose consistency is more reliable.
Honest track specialist whose speed deficit makes it very hard to see a path to victory, even with the class drop from A2. Will run her race without threatening the principals.
The class and trainer credentials are strong, but the Fader profile with zero closing speed at 480m on a fair track means she will almost certainly lead and then be caught. Will set the race up for the closers.
The form improvement is eye-catching but most of it came at 264m, not 480m. At 480m A2 his record is just 6th and 4th. The weakest draw and a speed rating 10 points below the leaders make him a minor player here.
Upsets are common at A3 grade — the top-rated dog on composite wins just 17.6% while the second-rated wins 20.5% from 205 runs. Billingham-hine has a 37.5% win rate from 24 runs at this grade, a strong and well-sampled trainer signal that applies to both Away Jazz and Catchem Flawless. Trap 3 is the best-performing draw at 19.4% from 155 runs, which benefits Aero Sophie.
Trap 1: 17.8% (152 runs) | Trap 2: 17.9% (179) | Trap 3: 19.4% (155) | Trap 4: 18.1% (144) | Trap 5: 20.8% (106) | Trap 6: 13.8% (116)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Patoka | 50 | 44 | All-Rounder |
2Away Jazz | 73 | 0 | Fader |
3Aero Sophie | 47 | 73 | Closer |
4Catchem Flawless | 42 | 82 | Closer |
6Ruinthelonggame | 51 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 480m | 630m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patoka | — | 0.605 | — |
| 2 | Away Jazz | 0.600 | 0.605 | — |
| 3 | Aero Sophie | — | 0.602 | 0.618 |
| 4 | Catchem Flawless | — | 0.607 | — |
| 6 | Ruinthelonggame | 0.590 | 0.613 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.