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THE WYNN KELLS AND STOREY BIRTHDAY STAKES
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Raha Jayjayd 2y 26 | M E Wiley — 19% R510 W99 P262 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 59 | 50 (5) | 85 (1) | 51 (5) | 67 (3) | 89 (1) | 80 (1) | 41 (6) | 90 (1) | 64 (4) | 61 (3) | 73 | 51 | 23 | 61 | 64 | 64 | 1 | 11/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Hoyland Ladd 2y 35 | R A Draper — 29% R263 W76 P171 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 49 | 94 (2) | 100 (1) | 100 (1) | 61 (2) | 47 (1) | 50 (4) | 57 (3) | 42 (3) | 40 (2) | 33 (3) | 28 | 25 | - | 25 | 68 | 49 | 5 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Skidroe Ladyb 2y 26 | M L Locke — 23% R292 W66 P171 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 63 | 52 (5) | 91 (1) | 51 (6) | 55 (5) | 55 (5) | 71 (2) | 58 (5) | 91 (1) | 43 (6) | 60 (3) | 28 | 39 | 30 | 37 | 60 | 48 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Headford Wayned 2y 25 | M L Locke — 23% R292 W66 P171 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 50 | 65 (5) | 83 (3) | 82 (2) | 78 (3) | 74 (2) | 82 (2) | 65 (3) | 48 (6) | 74 (3) | - | 30 | 23 | - | 23 | 62 | 46 | 6 | 12/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Headford Lilyb 2y 17 | M L Locke — 23% R292 W66 P171 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 0 | 92 (1) | 73 (3) | 78 (2) | 92 (1) | 72 (2) | 70 (3) | 68 (4) | 69 (3) | 93 (1) | - | 65 | - | 37 | - | 73 | 69 | 3 | 7/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Gav Nificentd 1y 24 | P W Young — 18% R1322 W243 P772 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 65 | 49 | 62 (3) | 85 (2) | 66 (5) | 78 (2) | 95 (1) | 96 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | 85 | - | 85 | 74 | 79 | 2 | 2/1F | |
Four CD wins from ten Romford 400m starts (3,1,1,6,1,4,3,1,2,1) — comfortably the most proven CD dog in this field. Drawn in T1, the best trap (17.7% from 113 runs). EP 55 and FB 59 mean he'll break inside and hold the rail through Romford's tight bends. Fader pace (CS 37) is moderate enough to sustain at 400m — he doesn't collapse like a CS 0 Fader. SM 62 is the best suitability in the field — track, distance, and trap all align. Performance trajectory 60→78→74→38→76 is volatile but the 78, 74, 76 peaks show A-grade ability. Trainer M E Wiley at 22%. AP 64 and SP 43 look modest against Gav Nificent's 74/65, but at Romford OR where R2 beats R1, the CD-proven inside-rail dog with early pace overcomes the raw class advantage of outside closers.
DANGER: Best bend speed + good draw + two CD wins. She'll lead and can hold on Romford's tight track. The 77→42 volatility is the risk.
DANGER: Raw class (AP 73, SP 61) and moderate trainer (28%) make her dangerous if she adapts to Romford. But zero CD data + Closer from T5 on a tight track = high risk.
DANGER: Best raw numbers + three CD wins but T6 death draw (9.0%) and declining form (79→62). If drawn T1-T3 he'd be a Strong pick — from T6 he's beatable.
Decent dog with limited CD data. T2 draw and Closer profile make him the wrong profile for tight-track success.
One CD win but no early pace and worst speed. The 81 latest was an outlier — base level is 43-69.
T6 death draw at 9.0%. T1 best at 17.7%. R2 beats R1 (16.7% vs 14.3%) — the second-best dog wins more often than the top pick at this grade/distance. Closers from outside traps are structurally disadvantaged.
T1:17.7%(113r) T2:12.0%(108r) T3:16.4%(128r) T4:15.0%(127r) T5:15.6%(141r) T6:9.0%(111r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 400m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Raha Jayjay | 55 | 37 | Fader |
2Hoyland Lad | 50 | 62 | Closer |
3Skidroe Lady | 57 | 26 | Fader |
4Headford Wayne | 9 | 38 | Fader |
5Headford Lily | 0 | 92 | Closer |
6Gav Nificent | 50 | 85 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.