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Arena Racing Company Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Alnwick Kennyd 2y 37 | A Harrison — 20% R532 W109 P321 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 52 | 41 (6) | 54 (3) | 37 (3) | 50 (1) | 32 (4) | 29 (5) | 67 (1) | 55 (6) | 71 (3) | - | 36 | 28 | - | - | 46 | 25 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Smiling Evamacb 1y 32 | J J Fenwick — 18% R504 W89 P278 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 49 | 41 (5) | 35 (2) | 27 (5) | 45 (5) | 70 (1) | 35 (4) | 36 (6) | 57 (3) | 52 (2) | 33 (4) | 12 | 19 | - | - | 42 | 20 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ My Roses Legacyd 3y 32 | J J Fenwick — 18% R504 W89 P278 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 49 | 22 (5) | 37 (2) | 32 (6) | 45 (2) | 26 (6) | 23 (6) | 34 (5) | 46 (3) | 57 (1) | 46 (2) | 22 | 31 | - | - | 34 | 17 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Wraysbury Queenb 2y 24 | P Rutherford — 18% R344 W61 P177 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 43 | 36 (2) | 35 (5) | 39 (5) | 37 (4) | 28 (5) | 50 (1) | 48 (3) | 40 (6) | 54 (3) | 57 (2) | 18 | 26 | - | - | 40 | 22 | 5 | 16/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Alnwick Tinab 2y 28 | A Harrison — 20% R532 W109 P321 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 83 | 55 | 31 (6) | 50 (1) | 20 (6) | 24 (4) | 28 (3) | 24 (5) | 31 (3) | 33 (4) | 24 (3) | 26 (2) | 26 | 17 | - | 5 | 30 | 22 | 1 | 10/11F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tina On Fireb 3y 43 | J J Fenwick — 18% R504 W89 P278 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | 51 | 40 (5) | 37 (6) | 32 (6) | 56 (2) | 61 (1) | 57 (1) | 38 (4) | 39 (4) | 31 (6) | 41 (4) | 28 | 25 | - | - | 43 | 5 | 2 | 11/2 | - | |
The dominant speed rating in this field at 83 — the next-best runner (Tina On Fire) has a speed of 63, a gap of 20 points. In a 290-metre sprint race, raw speed is the primary determining factor and this advantage is substantial. Also carries the best bend rating (55) in the field. A Fader profile with early pace of 61 means she will leave the traps quickly and handle the first bend. Won at Newcastle two runs ago (P50, position 1) confirming the ability exists in race conditions here. The concerns are significant: average performance of just 30, composite of 22, zero course and distance wins from six Newcastle 290-metre starts, and trap 5 at 9.09% — the poorest structural draw in D3 at Newcastle. The form record is highly inconsistent with poor performances sandwiched around the one win. This selection is speculative, driven entirely by the model's identification of the speed gap and winning form two runs ago. If the speed advantage translates into early control, the short trip makes it very hard to catch.
Best structural draw, best trainer, best avgP. Genuine danger despite not being the speed leader. Main threat to the pick.
No proven 290m Newcastle record, inconsistent form, speed below leaders. Hard to consider.
Poorest metrics in field, no 290m record, consistent poor form. No case at all.
Mid-field metrics, no 290m record, last win six runs ago. Modest improvement from recent 2nd but not a winning prospect.
Good structural draw and second-best speed but composite of 5 and three consecutive poor finishes make this very hard to support.
Sprint race — speed dominant. Alnwick Tina speed 83 is far ahead of the field (next: 63). Trap 5 is structurally weakest at D3 290m. Form record (0/6 C&D wins) is the concern.
T1:28.3% T2:14.3% T3:12.5% T4:14.3% T5:9.09% T6:21.4% (D3 290m Newcastle — limited sample)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 290m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (290m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alnwick Kenny | — | 0.636 |
| 2 | Smiling Evamac | — | 0.638 |
| 3 | My Roses Legacy | — | 0.633 |
| 4 | Wraysbury Queen | — | 0.639 |
| 5 | Alnwick Tina | 0.609 | 0.635 |
| 6 | Tina On Fire | — | 0.626 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.