Excellent record at this exact track and distance — three wins and six places from ten course-and-distance runs, comfortably the strongest such record in this field. The form has bounced around lately (43, 64, 43, 43, 64, 50) rather than progressing steadily, but that volatility shouldn't be read as decline; he's twice hit a 64-rated performance in that spread and the ability is clearly there. Trap one has been the second-strongest box at this grade. A solid, honest sort even without the fastest raw times in the race.

Modest recent form and drawn in a below-average trap for this grade. The pace data is genuinely inconsistent — her early speed and finishing figures swing from race to race rather than settling into a reliable pattern — which makes her hard to trust with confidence. Just one place from eight course-and-distance runs tells its own story. Others have stronger claims tonight.

Draws the best-performing trap in this grade, but the pace profile is a real concern — she shows an extremely fast early speed with almost nothing left to close, the classic burn-and-fade pattern that this track regularly catches out. Her recent form has been steady without being spectacular, and last time out she led early before fading to fifth. Watch for an early lead that doesn't hold to the line.

The model's nominal top pick tonight, but the profile gives some pause — she's another fast-starting type who tends to weaken in the closing stages, and her course-and-distance record over ten runs shows just one win and two places. Trainer P W Young has a strong overall record from a huge sample of runners, which counts for something. Steady rather than spectacular, and the raw times don't stand out in this field.