Jaguar Dettori is the projected winner on the strength of an impressive recent form curve — his last four runs read 67, 57, 55, and 64, a sequence that shows genuine quality and consistency at A6 level. The 67 last time was the best figure in the field and confirms he is at the top of his game right now. Trap 4 at 17.8% is neutral, which means he needs to win on ability rather than draw. Given the low separation at A6 462m, where ratings barely predict the outcome, the concern is whether his form edge is enough to overcome the structural advantage that trap 1 gives Jennywins. On pure form, he deserves the pick.