NEIL BLACKBURN BIRTHDAY STAKES
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Distant Roverd 3yREP 34 | D Childs — 12% R293 W34 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 51 | 44 (6) | 77 (2) | 67 (3) | 91 (1) | 84 (1) | 70 (2) | 79 (4) | 88 (2) | 66 (1) | - | 53 | 70 | 48 | 53 | 71 | 46 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Funky Ryand 2yREP 34 | P W Young — 18% R1290 W229 P713 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 46 | 53 (5) | 50 (5) | 77 (2) | 70 (3) | 72 (3) | 54 (4) | 68 (3) | 72 (2) | 62 (3) | 63 (5) | 16 | 36 | - | 19 | 63 | 31 | 5 | 9/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Distant Hikerd 3yREP 23 | D Childs — 12% R293 W34 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 37 | 38 | 73 (2) | 75 (2) | 72 (2) | 76 (3) | 52 (5) | 72 (2) | 77 (2) | 91 (1) | 79 (2) | 63 (4) | 53 | 43 | 30 | 10 | 73 | 32 | 4 | 9/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Blackburnybulletd 2yREP 35 | M E Wiley — 20% R510 W101 P267 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 54 | 77 (4) | 65 (3) | 70 (3) | 66 (6) | 67 (4) | 63 (4) | 96 (3) | 72 (1) | - | - | 27 | 37 | - | 21 | 71 | 44 | 1 | 11/8F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Stormy Patd 2yREP 9 | K M O'flaherty — 19% R345 W65 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 56 | 88 (1) | 66 (4) | 66 (3) | 50 (6) | 40 (6) | 58 (5) | 78 (2) | 64 (4) | 62 (5) | 89 (1) | 48 | 28 | 13 | 27 | 67 | 53 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Kilara Zachd 2yREP 25 | K M O'flaherty — 19% R345 W65 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | 52 | 32 (6) | 86 (1) | 48 (6) | 48 (5) | 70 (3) | 65 (4) | 56 (5) | 53 (4) | 84 (1) | 62 (2) | 37 | 30 | - | 29 | 58 | 31 | 6 | 18/1 | - | |
The model's pick in the evening's elite race. Composite of 44 and average performance of 71 are solid for A1 grade, but the selection is most notable for what it overrides: Stormy Pat holds a composite of 53 — nine points higher — yet Blackburnybullet is ranked first. At A1 grade where composite is more predictive than at lower grades, this is a significant speed-based override. Trap 4 wins only 12.7% at A1, the worst structural draw, adding a further headwind. The model is making a specific claim that Blackburnybullet's fieldSpeed and first-bend sectionals are exceptional — and that claim must be substantial to override both the composite gap and the draw penalty.
Dominant composite advantage in elite grade. Model overrides on speed but analytical case is very strong.
Model's 2nd pick. Solid composite and performance for A1 grade. Each-way interest.
Best draw negated by lowest composite in elite company. Against.
Strong avgP but very low composite. Divergence suggests context issue. Against.
Joint-lowest composite and weakest performance in A1 field. Against.
A1 elite grade: composite R1 wins 26.4%. Speed override requires exceptional pace data to justify at this grade level.
T1:19.7% T2:24.3% T3:20.5% T4:12.7% T5:14.5% T6:16.6%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 400m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Distant Rover | 57 | 0 | Fader |
2Funky Ryan | 48 | 54 | All-Rounder |
3Distant Hiker | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Blackburnybullet | 52 | 65 | Closer |
5Stormy Pat | 47 | 58 | Closer |
6Kilara Zach | 47 | 46 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 400m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (400m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 225m | 277m | 285m | 400m | 491m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Distant Rover | — | — | — | 0.610 | 0.608 |
| 2 | Funky Ryan | 0.624 | — | — | 0.612 | — |
| 3 | Distant Hiker | — | — | — | 0.616 | 0.595 |
| 4 | Blackburnybullet | — | 0.601 | 0.601 | 0.606 | — |
| 5 | Stormy Pat | — | — | — | 0.611 | — |
| 6 | Kilara Zach | — | — | — | 0.614 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.