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Sunday Roast Lunch At Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Emers Noddyb 2y 18 | D Blackbird — 16% R1121 W183 P621 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 53 | 85 (1) | 62 (2) | 37 (4) | 41 (6) | 82 (1) | 58 (4) | 82 (1) | 71 (3) | 60 (4) | 46 (1) | 41 | 41 | 10 | 32 | 59 | 39 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballynew Rainb 2y 28 | D Blackbird — 16% R1121 W183 P621 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 51 | 72 (3) | 73 (2) | 77 (2) | 34 (2) | 35 (2) | 40 (1) | 50 (5) | 62 (4) | 48 (6) | - | 45 | 41 | 40 | 28 | 67 | 46 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Newmoors Amoreb 2y 28 | M K Bulmer — 20% R279 W56 P156 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 31 | 57 (4) | 73 (1) | 84 (1) | 70 (3) | 73 (2) | 82 (1) | 78 (1) | 50 (4) | 59 (4) | 52 (5) | 33 | 29 | - | 34 | 69 | 34 | 4 | 11/8F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Laylas Legendd 2y 18 | C Mcnicholas — 14% R541 W78 P263 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 65 | 64 (4) | 77 (1) | 75 (1) | 59 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 51 | 46 | - | 62 | 71 | 53 | 1 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Allowdale Poppyb 3y 112 | S Linley — 15% R380 W58 P196 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 41 | 88 (1) | 84 (1) | 83 (1) | 52 (3) | 52 (5) | 59 (4) | 48 (5) | 65 (3) | 52 (6) | 71 (2) | 31 | 19 | 20 | 34 | 66 | 43 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emers Noddy | 27.89 | 28.13 | 28.14 | 42 | +0.25 | ||
| 2 | Ballynew Rain | 27.54 | 27.94 | 27.68 | 57 | +0.14 | Fastest | |
| 3 | Newmoors Amore | 27.68 | 28.06 | 28.29 | 44 | +0.61 | ||
| 4 | Laylas Legend | 27.77 | 27.95 | 27.76 | 51 | -0.01 | ||
| 6 | Allowdale Poppy | 27.71 | 28.05 | 27.61 | 54 | -0.10 | Model pick |
Another A2 contest at Sunderland's 450-metre trip, where trap 1 has been the best box at this grade in raw terms (over 21%) but trap 6 isn't far behind at an even 20%, with trap 2 clearly the weakest at under 16%. Allowdale Poppy arrives dropping back in class after a career-best win a grade higher, carrying the single best rated performance of anyone in the field, and lands the second-strongest trap to go with it. Ballynew Rain is the fastest dog on the clock but has to overcome the worst draw at this grade. Expect the class edge to tell if the pace holds together.
Won last time out at the grade above with the highest rated performance of anyone in this field at 84, so the drop back to this level looks a shrewd, deliberate booking. Gets trap 6, the second-best box at this grade, and backs that with solid recent pace figures. The combination of proven higher-grade class and a favourable draw makes her the standout on paper tonight.
The fastest dog in the field on recent times and carries a solid average performance figure in the high sixties. Trap 2 has been the weakest box at this grade, though, which is a real structural knock on the fastest runner in the race. A genuine threat if he can overcome the poor draw.
Gets trap 1, the best-performing box at this grade at over 21%, but the pace figures are the weakest of the group and recent form has been up and down through the fifties, sixties and eighties. The draw is doing the heavy lifting here rather than raw ability. An each-way interest rather than a leading claim.
Solid average performance figure in the high sixties with fairly consistent recent form. Trap 3 has been a below-par box at this grade. A closer by profile who needs the pace to be strong up front to have his best chance of being involved.
Carries the highest average performance figure in the field and arrives on the back of a career-best win at the grade below, rated 77 last time out. Only three recent graded runs on the card though, so the sample is thin for a dog stepping up in company. Trap 4 has been a below-par box at this grade, adding to the risk.
Key insight: Trap 1 and trap 6 are the two strongest boxes at this A2 grade (21.4% and 20.0%), trap 2 clearly the weakest (15.6%). The pick combines the second-best trap with the single highest rated recent performance in the field.
T1:21.4% T2:15.6% T3:16.0% T4:17.7% T5:19.6% T6:20.0%
1,681 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Emers Noddy | 53 | 27 | All-Rounder |
2Ballynew Rain | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Newmoors Amore | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Laylas Legend | 60 | 31 | Fader |
6Allowdale Poppy | 38 | 64 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 261m | 450m | 640m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emers Noddy | 0.607 | 0.625 | — |
| 2 | Ballynew Rain | 0.617 | 0.622 | — |
| 3 | Newmoors Amore | — | 0.623 | 0.620 |
| 4 | Laylas Legend | — | 0.621 | — |
| 6 | Allowdale Poppy | — | 0.623 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.