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Doncaster 483 Winner of One
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Superb Morningd 2yREP 25 | D L Fretwell — 15% R157 W23 P93 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 52 | 59 (5) | 45 (4) | 67 (3) | 79 (2) | 44 (4) | 42 (4) | 56 (3) | 85 (1) | 28 (5) | 43 (2) | 4 | 23 | 20 | 24 | 56 | 42 | 1 | 15/8 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Are You Sureb 4yN/R 33 | C A Williams — 14% R383 W55 P182 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 24 | 45 | 44 (5) | 54 (4) | 50 (3) | 31 (5) | 53 (4) | 31 (5) | 39 (6) | 61 (1) | 49 (4) | 48 (6) | 19 | 4 | - | 4 | 46 | 23 | - | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Blackstone Tend 2yREP 24 | C D Marston — 13% R449 W59 P207 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 72 | 26 | 53 (4) | 69 (4) | 61 (2) | 52 (6) | 36 (6) | 91 (6) | 100 (1) | 72 (1) | 85 (3) | - | 30 | - | 23 | - | 65 | 49 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Inca Brookd 3yREP 37 | R A Draper — 28% R274 W78 P180 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 64 | 55 (3) | 75 (2) | 63 (2) | 59 (4) | 83 (1) | 74 (2) | 62 (4) | 68 (3) | 66 (3) | 56 (4) | 43 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 66 | 46 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Allez Lulab 1yREP 44 | C Handford — 33% R18 W6 P13 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 66 | 84 (1) | 78 (1) | 43 (5) | 52 (2) | 64 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 30 | 30 | 30 | 67 | 36 | 3 | 1/1F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Grumpy Baby Daved 3yN/R 12 | N Langley — 14% R212 W30 P113 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 0 | 49 (4) | 57 (3) | 39 (6) | 53 (4) | 47 (5) | 57 (2) | 54 (3) | 51 (4) | 48 (4) | 52 (3) | 31 | - | - | - | 50 | 42 | - | - | - | |
Composite rank 3 from trap 1 — a decent inside draw at OR 483m producing 19.7% of winners. Fader profile with strong early pace. Has run at Doncaster OR 483m before with a 59-rated effort last out. Average performance of 56 — below the leaders. The course experience is valuable but the composite rank 3 and lower performance ceiling mean he is unlikely to threaten the top two.
Composite rank 2 undermined by the worst trap in the race. Would be very competitive in any other box — the draw is the difference.
Composite and speed rank 1 in a tight field. No Doncaster form is the key reservation but the composite rule is followed at this gap.
The most compelling form dog — won at OR 483m last time with P84. Composite rank 5 prevents selection at Doncaster. Worth noting as a significant exception case.
Stepping from A6 to OR with the lowest average performance in the field. Class jump is too severe despite a decent trap draw.
Best trap but composite rank 6 and lowest average performance. Cannot be recommended.
Composite rank 1 at Doncaster 483m is followed — gap of 3 points is below the 5-point threshold for a guaranteed model lock but Doncaster rule is to follow composite. Trap 4 is the worst draw at 11.3%.
T1:19.7% T2:22.7% T3:17.2% T4:11.3% T5:16.4% T6:20.8%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 483m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Superb Morning | 88 | 0 | Fader |
2Are You Sure | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Blackstone Ten | 37 | 90 | Closer |
4Inca Brook | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Allez Lula | 63 | 10 | Fader |
6Grumpy Baby Dave | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 483m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (483m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 435m | 450m | 480m | 483m | 491m | 500m | 525m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Superb Morning | — | 0.636 | 0.593 | 0.622 | — | 0.590 | — | — |
| 3 | Blackstone Ten | 0.625 | — | — | — | 0.607 | — | 0.546 | — |
| 4 | Inca Brook | — | — | — | 0.621 | — | 0.591 | — | 0.604 |
| 5 | Allez Lula | — | — | — | 0.627 | — | — | 0.563 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.