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Doncaster 450 Winner of 1
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Vale Speedyd 3y 35 | D L Fretwell — 15% R157 W23 P93 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 73 | 0 | 55 (3) | 79 (2) | 68 (2) | 39 (3) | 53 (5) | 63 (3) | 66 (3) | 51 (5) | 86 (1) | 65 (2) | 47 | - | - | - | 62 | 45 | 6 | 14/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Senahel Scorpiond 2y 14 | D E Fradgley — 17% R109 W19 P55 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 31 | 100 | 90 (1) | 58 (5) | 68 (2) | 71 (2) | 53 (5) | 66 (2) | 80 (1) | 79 (1) | 56 (3) | 22 (5) | 55 | 25 | 10 | 27 | 70 | 36 | 2 | 14/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Fourpenny Giftb 1y 27 | S R Parker — 33% R67 W22 P44 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 31 | 100 | 66 (2) | 72 (2) | 60 (5) | 52 (5) | 88 (3) | 73 (1) | 68 (1) | 51 (1) | 49 (4) | - | 4 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 66 | 28 | 4 | 33/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Bossman Buddyd 3y 36 | C R Morris — 27% R274 W73 P182 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | 100 | 63 (3) | 94 (1) | 54 (5) | 68 (2) | 55 (5) | 52 (3) | 66 (1) | 49 (4) | 56 (3) | 58 (3) | 21 | 25 | 18 | 30 | 64 | 46 | 1 | 1/5F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Kates Goldied 3y 26 | C D Marston — 13% R449 W59 P207 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 0 | 59 (3) | 74 (2) | 85 (1) | 63 (3) | 77 (1) | 47 (5) | 76 (1) | 73 (1) | 52 (4) | 68 (2) | 40 | - | 32 | - | 68 | 42 | 5 | 33/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Frankies Liond 2y 23 | C Jackson — 19% R106 W20 P62 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 0 | 62 (5) | 94 (1) | 56 (4) | 71 (3) | 93 (1) | 91 (1) | 68 (3) | 57 (4) | 67 (1) | 68 (1) | 40 | - | 20 | 33 | 73 | 34 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
Composite rank 1 by one point — the narrowest margin on today card — but at Doncaster the composite is followed at every gap level. Fader pace with maximum early pace and the best first-bend score in the field, meaning he will be away quickly and prominent from the start. A peak performance of 94 from two runs ago shows genuine OR-level ability, and the trainer wins at 26%. Trap 4 at OR 450m produces 20% of winners — average but not a hindrance. The analytical case is slim — one composite point — but the pace profile, first-bend leadership and trainer confidence support the selection. In a field with wide uncertainty, the composite is the most reliable anchor.
One composite point behind the pick with speed rank 1 but zero course form and the lowest trainer win rate in the race. Danger by proximity.
The most talented runner on raw ability with the best draw. Composite rank 5 and zero course form prevent a selection — but treat as a significant wildcard.
Won last out at OR 450m — the strongest single form reference in the race. Composite rank 4 at Doncaster means we cannot override the model, but she is very much in the mix.
Composite rank 3 with decent average performance but worst trap in the race. Cannot be recommended with the structural draw penalty.
Composite rank 6 — last in the model pecking order. Some course form but not enough to challenge the leaders.
Trap 6 dominates OR 450m at 27.4%. Trap 5 is the worst at 12.8%. Composite R1 here leads by only one point — the closest margin on the evening card.
T1:22.5% T2:20.2% T3:20.4% T4:20.0% T5:12.8% T6:27.4%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Vale Speedy | 81 | 39 | Fader |
2Senahel Scorpion | 19 | 61 | Closer |
3Fourpenny Gift | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Bossman Buddy | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Kates Goldie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Frankies Lion | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 268m | 350m | 435m | 450m | 462m | 480m | 483m | 500m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vale Speedy | — | — | — | — | — | 0.594 | 0.631 | 0.592 | — |
| 2 | Senahel Scorpion | 0.641 | — | — | 0.627 | 0.618 | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | Fourpenny Gift | — | — | — | 0.625 | — | — | — | 0.598 | — |
| 4 | Bossman Buddy | — | — | — | 0.610 | — | 0.599 | 0.618 | 0.589 | 0.543 |
| 5 | Kates Goldie | — | — | 0.615 | — | — | 0.607 | — | — | — |
| 6 | Frankies Lion | — | 0.551 | — | 0.615 | — | 0.615 | — | — | 0.562 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.