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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Crystal Henryd 2y 15 | I Zivkovic — 14% R600 W84 P279 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 47 | 33 (6) | 57 (3) | 33 (1) | 51 (4) | 26 (2) | 46 (4) | 64 (1) | 36 (6) | 58 (1) | 67 (2) | 31 | 32 | 1 | 19 | 44 | 36 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Critical Katieb 1y 17 | W M Lyons — 20% R1027 W205 P551 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 54 | 67 (1) | 24 (5) | 33 (1) | 46 (4) | 25 (3) | 25 (3) | 22 (4) | - | - | - | 48 | 25 | 30 | 27 | 38 | 42 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Crystal Camilab 1y 11 | T D Coote — 18% R568 W101 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | - | 19 (5) | 26 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18 | 15 | - | - | 22 | 31 | 6 | 10/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Beaming Moscatob 2y 6 | T D Coote — 18% R568 W101 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 57 | 67 (1) | 50 (5) | 68 (5) | 43 (1) | 43 (5) | 32 (5) | 34 (6) | 37 (6) | 49 (6) | - | 33 | 32 | 45 | 32 | 51 | 48 | 2 | 13/8F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Bells Meadowd 4y 26 | W M Lyons — 20% R1027 W205 P551 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 26 | 65 (2) | 44 (5) | 70 (1) | 53 (3) | 51 (4) | 69 (1) | 69 (1) | 75 (1) | 64 (1) | 63 (1) | 16 | 25 | 51 | 51 | 61 | 46 | 1 | 9/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Paddled 2y 7 | I Zivkovic — 14% R600 W84 P279 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 50 | 53 (3) | 54 (2) | 57 (3) | 39 (1) | 53 (5) | 61 (4) | 37 (2) | 52 (6) | 37 (3) | - | 30 | 28 | 24 | 26 | 51 | 46 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
The selection on a combination of the best Fader form, the best Fader pace credentials, and the most reliable trainer-runner combination on the card. Beaming Moscato carries a performance average of 51 — the highest among the non-Closer runners — and a Fader profile with EP=57 and first-bend of 57 that confirms genuine early-pace capacity over the 462-metre trip. Won last time out at A6 — the same grade as tonight — meaning the form is proven at exactly the right level. Trainer Coote posts the strongest win rate on the card at 32%, and the combination of current form and trainer confidence is compelling. Trap 4 at 17.74% is not the structural lead draw (T1 at 21.09% holds that distinction) but the 3.35-point gap is more than offset by the 7-point form advantage over Crystal Henry and the significantly better pace credentials that suit Kinsley's first-bend demands. Trial form at 462m (28.61 on April 30) provides further distance confirmation. A medium-confidence selection rather than a banker because the structural draw argument for T1 is real.
Best structural draw in the race. Form is the only thing preventing selection over the pick.
Right pace profile, wrong form level and structural draw.
Second-best structural draw wasted on the weakest form in the field.
Best form and speed in the field, double-disqualified by Closer profile and worst structural trap. Cannot recommend.
Equal form to the pick in a weaker structural position. The combination of draw and pace profile prevents selection.
T1 dominant at 21.09%, T5 worst at 11.56%. T3 second at 19.05%. Closer in T5 is categorical non-starter. T4 Fader with best form challenges the T1 structural advantage.
T1:21.09% T2:16.32% T3:19.05% T4:17.74% T5:11.56% T6:16.59%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Crystal Henry | 47 | 51 | All-Rounder |
2Critical Katie | 55 | 30 | Fader |
3Crystal Camila | — | — | No data |
4Beaming Moscato | 57 | 23 | Fader |
5Bells Meadow | 29 | 100 | Closer |
6Swift Paddle | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (462m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 268m | 462m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crystal Henry | 0.623 | 0.633 |
| 2 | Critical Katie | 0.629 | 0.632 |
| 3 | Crystal Camila | 0.635 | — |
| 4 | Beaming Moscato | — | 0.632 |
| 5 | Bells Meadow | — | 0.626 |
| 6 | Swift Paddle | — | 0.630 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.