Droopys Samara is a fascinating runner — she has outstanding form at open race and handicap level with ratings of 83 and 76, suggesting she's streets ahead of a D2 sprint field. She's a confirmed closer with maximum finishing speed and zero early pace, which is the opposite of what you'd ideally want in a 277-metre sprint. Her last three runs have been trials with low ratings, making it impossible to gauge her current fitness from the form book. The model projects her as the winner based on the class edge — a composite of 59 when the rest of the field ranges from 27 to 41. Trap six is the best structural position, winning 21.5% of the time. The risk is that a pure closer with no early pace simply can't get into the race over 277 metres, but the class gap is so enormous that even a moderate effort should see her home.