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Friday Night Winning Deal @ Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Zesty Limeb 3y 17 | E Y Bell — 22% R530 W115 P300 Trainer form — last 3 months | 63 | 48 | 44 | 38 (5) | 45 (3) | 47 (5) | 70 (1) | 46 (5) | 67 (1) | 55 (3) | 63 (2) | 38 (6) | 48 (4) | 5 | 33 | - | 28 | 54 | 43 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Itsgiving Delulub 2y 18 | D Blackbird — 17% R1092 W184 P589 Trainer form — last 3 months | 72 | 50 | 42 | 68 (1) | 48 (4) | 51 (4) | 61 (2) | 55 (4) | 46 (5) | 44 (5) | 56 (2) | - | - | 56 | 56 | 18 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Baby Centurionb 3y 9 | G Strike — 18% R412 W74 P222 Trainer form — last 3 months | 50 | 55 | 50 | 46 (4) | 53 (4) | 38 (5) | 38 (6) | 55 (3) | 41 (4) | 53 (2) | 47 (5) | 61 (3) | 62 (2) | 60 | 40 | 35 | 38 | 54 | 51 | 1 | 13/8F | |
| 4 | ▶ Coolaboola Lassb 2y 111 | D Blackbird — 17% R1092 W184 P589 Trainer form — last 3 months | 93 | 47 | 46 | 76 (1) | 73 (1) | 48 (5) | 73 (1) | 71 (1) | 54 (4) | 50 (4) | 50 (5) | 72 (1) | 47 (5) | 23 | 37 | 28 | 31 | 53 | 45 | 5 | 7/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Timmythecollard 2y 36 | S Linley — 17% R373 W65 P191 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 62 | 23 (6) | 46 (5) | 43 (5) | 49 (5) | 54 (4) | 49 (5) | 62 (3) | 75 (1) | 49 (3) | 58 (3) | 33 | 27 | 18 | 22 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Strike It Harveyd 3y 17 | P Miller — 17% R509 W88 P265 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 68 (1) | 52 (3) | 70 (1) | 36 (5) | 38 (6) | 41 (5) | 53 (2) | 38 (6) | 43 (5) | 42 (5) | 40 | 36 | - | 29 | 48 | 43 | 4 | 7/1 | |
Baby Centurion sits in the DOMINANT T3 — 23.98% from 246 runs, nearly 7 percentage points above expected rate and the strongest trap signal on the entire Sunderland card tonight. He's an All-Rounder (EP 50, CS 48, PaceCon 86) with balanced tactical flexibility who doesn't need to lead but can sustain honest pace through all four bends. Performance average of 54 is joint-highest, and the form trajectory P61→P62→P65→P38→P57→P27 shows a clear recent improving trend — the last three competitive runs climbing 61→62→65, which at A5 suggests a dog finding his level and edging upward. Speed 55 is the second-best in the field and suits Sunderland's standard trip. Suitability confirms comfort: track 40, distance 38, trap 60 — that 60 trap suit is the second-highest in the field and crucial at T3 where the aggregate data already screams structural dominance. Class suit 35 is reasonable. Trainer Strike at 22% is adequate. The combination of dominant trap (23.98%) + high trap suit (60) + improving form trajectory + balanced pace profile creates genuine structural convergence. This is a textbook Medium confidence pick — strong signals aligning but the performance numbers don't scream class superiority.
Highest composite (56) with balanced suitability and strong T2 position. Trial-contaminated form is the main risk but the structural and suitability case makes her the primary danger.
Decent performance average but crippling trap suit of 5 — individual history says she can't win from T1 regardless of aggregate data. Condition mismatch.
DEAD trap (T4 14.63%) with low trap suit (23) — structural double negative. Mid-pack performance can't overcome the positional disadvantage.
Fastest and best-bending dog but lowest performance and inconsistent pace. Will lead early and fade — not competitive for the win despite speed advantages.
Below A5 standard on recent form (P38, P43) with class suit 0. Reasonable pace profile but insufficient class to threaten from T6.
T3 is massively dominant at 23.98% — nearly 7pp above expected rate. This is one of the strongest single-trap signals on tonight's card. NORMAL separation means the composite model works at A5 (R1 21.64% vs R3 13.12%, 8.5pp gap), adding confidence to the R1-ranked pick sitting in the dominant T3.
T1:19.62% T2:19.83% T3:23.98% T4:14.63% T5:16.73% T6:18.73%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Zesty Lime | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
2Itsgiving Delulu | 42 | 56 | Closer |
3Baby Centurion | 50 | 48 | All-Rounder |
4Coolaboola Lass | 48 | 47 | All-Rounder |
5Timmythecollar | 55 | 53 | Front Runner |
6Strike It Harvey | 54 | 41 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.