@SunderlandDogs On Twitter Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Untold Flokib 1y 17 | D Blackbird — 17% R1084 W182 P585 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 48 | 45 (6) | 47 (2) | 52 (3) | 55 (1) | 37 (3) | 44 (2) | 42 (2) | - | - | - | 32 | 34 | - | 34 | 41 | 38 | 6 | 11/8F | |
| 2 | ▶ Gangster Julesb 3y 18 | P Miller — 17% R501 W87 P263 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 51 | 39 (4) | 31 (6) | 47 (5) | 64 (2) | 20 (5) | 31 (5) | 31 (6) | 53 (2) | 37 (5) | 37 (6) | 25 | 22 | 28 | 22 | 39 | 33 | 5 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Come On Gingerd 3y 25 | R Thompson — 11% R118 W13 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 54 | 47 (4) | 43 (4) | 41 (5) | 36 (5) | 40 (5) | 51 (2) | 37 (5) | 58 (1) | 35 (5) | 45 (2) | 29 | 37 | 32 | 35 | 47 | 42 | 1 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Anglesey Paddyd 2y 16 | D Blackbird — 17% R1084 W182 P585 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | 52 | 22 (6) | 35 (6) | 33 (5) | 37 (6) | 39 (3) | 46 (4) | 28 (5) | 48 (2) | 39 (6) | 54 (3) | 25 | 20 | - | 20 | 42 | 35 | 4 | 33/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Moonveen Bulletd 4y 26 | G Strike — 18% R410 W74 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 68 | 46 | 72 (1) | 57 (3) | 58 (2) | 54 (5) | 73 (1) | 50 (4) | 65 (2) | 53 (3) | 59 (4) | 67 (2) | 24 | 39 | 40 | 38 | 61 | 51 | 3 | 4/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Joannes Hopeb 2y 6 | M K Bulmer — 20% R238 W47 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 88 | - | 55 (4) | 56 (4) | 63 (4) | 56 (3) | 58 (5) | 60 (3) | 52 (5) | 60 (4) | 52 (3) | 59 (4) | 40 | 34 | 28 | 40 | 60 | 52 | 2 | 11/4 | |
Come On Ginger is the prediction model's pick from T3, which wins 17.27% from 249 runs — neutral. He's a Front Runner (EP 56, CS 50, PaceCon 96) with the field's highest pace consistency — in a handicap where maintaining effort from the staggered start is crucial, that 96 PaceCon means he distributes his energy perfectly through all four bends. Performance average of 47 is mid-pack, and the form P58→P35→P45→P35→P47→P39 is inconsistent with a P58 last time that's a genuine uptick but P35 and P45 before that were moderate. Speed 55 and bend 54 are both solid — the third-best in the field on both metrics. Suitability is moderate: track 37, distance 35, trap 29, class 32. Trainer Thompson at 14% is below average. In a handicap, the Front Runner profile is valuable because the stagger positions are fixed — a Front Runner breaks from their stagger and sustains, while closers need to overcome both the stagger AND the distance. Come On Ginger's 96 PaceCon means he'll use every metre of the stagger efficiently. The P58 last time is the form signal the model is leaning on.
The card's most dominant trap signal (T1 25.83%) in a handicap where trap advantage persists. Modest form but the stagger equalises ability — T1's structural edge is the clearest signal in this race.
Below-expected trap with the weakest suitability and declining form. Not competitive even with handicap adjustments.
DEAD trap (13.81%) with extreme but inconsistent closing profile (CS 100, PaceCon 35). Class suit 0 and weak suitability. Too unreliable from too poor a position.
Best form (perf 61, speed 68, CS 93) but DEAD T5 (12.36%) with trap suit 24. The structural mismatch is too severe even in a handicap where speed is elevated. Class acts from dead traps lose more often than they win.
Extraordinary speed (88) with strong trainer (Bulmer 28%) and decent form from above-expected T6. The speed advantage should matter most in a handicap but without pace data, the analytical case is incomplete.
HANDICAP — trap bias de-weighted, speed/pace profile elevated. T1 is massively dominant at 25.83% which is notable even for a handicap — the inside rail advantage persists through the stagger at Sunderland. LOW SEPARATION. T4 and T5 both DEAD despite handicap adjustments. Speed rating becomes the key differentiator when the handicapper has equalised ability.
T1:25.83% T2:15.99% T3:17.27% T4:13.81% T5:12.36% T6:19.01%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Untold Floki | 48 | 45 | All-Rounder |
2Gangster Jules | 50 | 43 | All-Rounder |
3Come On Ginger | 56 | 50 | Front Runner |
4Anglesey Paddy | 38 | 100 | Closer |
5Moonveen Bullet | 50 | 93 | Closer |
6Joannes Hope | — | — | No data |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.