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Sunday Roast Lunch at Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Wishful Nancyd 3y 8 | S Linley — 16% R373 W58 P194 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 28 | 59 (3) | 49 (4) | 53 (3) | 44 (5) | 43 (5) | 58 (3) | 51 (2) | 60 (3) | 57 (2) | 60 (3) | 27 | 27 | 22 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 1 | 7/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Tearb 1y 26 | E Y Bell — 20% R535 W109 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 50 | 53 (2) | 28 (4) | 33 (3) | 24 (6) | 34 (3) | 36 (1) | 53 (1) | 37 (2) | 47 (2) | - | 29 | 36 | 18 | 50 | 48 | 37 | 3 | 8/11F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballyquin Izzyb 2y 10 | G Strike — 20% R424 W85 P225 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 56 | 60 (1) | 46 (2) | 32 (5) | 40 (4) | 38 (5) | 40 (5) | 48 (4) | 32 (3) | 30 (4) | - | 17 | 13 | - | 23 | 43 | 32 | 5 | 12/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Debbies Hopeb 1y 18 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 50 | 56 (3) | 56 (3) | 51 (2) | 52 (2) | 60 (1) | 31 (4) | 52 (2) | 55 (3) | 55 (4) | 60 (3) | 11 | 26 | 24 | 28 | 53 | 41 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Hi Hildab 1y 7 | C Mcnicholas — 14% R536 W77 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 59 | 38 (5) | 74 (1) | 56 (2) | 58 (2) | 58 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 54 | 26 | 51 | 56 | 50 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Take A Riskb 2y 9 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 44 | 58 (1) | 42 (4) | 37 (5) | 52 (4) | 52 (3) | 37 (5) | 41 (2) | 40 (3) | 40 (4) | 56 (1) | 37 | 16 | 20 | 23 | 46 | 35 | 6 | 18/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wishful Nancy | 28.05 | 28.30 | 28.05 | 57 | 0.00 | Model pick, fastest | |
| 2 | Swift Tear | 28.26 | 28.62 | 28.26 | 44 | 0.00 | ||
| 3 | Ballyquin Izzy | 28.12 | 28.71 | 28.12 | 47 | 0.00 | Best trap | |
| 4 | Debbies Hope | 28.07 | 28.33 | 28.07 | 56 | 0.00 | ||
| 5 | Hi Hilda | 28.11 | 28.37 | 28.54 | 47 | +0.43 | ||
| 6 | Take A Risk | 28.43 | 28.68 | 28.43 | 38 | 0.00 |
Grade seven at Sunderland's 450m trip sits in the toughest part of the grade ladder to call - dogs here are often in transition, dropping down or climbing up, and the ratings are less reliable than at the better grades. Traps two and three have been the best draws in this grade, with trap one surprisingly the weakest. Wishful Nancy is the fastest recorded runner in this field by a clear margin but does all her work from off the pace, needing a strong gallop up front to unleash her closing gear. Hi Hilda is the genuine front runner with the best first-bend figure and tops the overall rating, so the pace battle between these two is likely to shape the finish. Debbies Hope is another confirmed closer with useful figures, while Ballyquin Izzy, Swift Tear and Take A Risk make up a genuinely competitive middle order.
The fastest recorded time in this field by a clear margin, and was a fair third last time out, doing all her best work from off the pace with an extreme closing gear. If the pace up front is strong enough she has the raw speed to trouble anyone here. The draw isn't ideal, trap one has been the weakest box in this grade, and she's slow into her stride, so she needs a truly-run race to bring her finishing speed into play - but on pure pace she's the one to beat.
A genuine front runner with the best first-bend figure in this field, and tops the overall rating with a clear gap over the next-best. Course-and-distance form is strong, two wins and four places from five runs at this trip. Last time out was below her best but the two runs before that were both solid. If she can dictate up front, she could make the fastest dog in the field work hard to catch her.
Another confirmed closer with a fast recorded time and was third last time out at a tougher level. Fair course-and-distance record, a win and four places from ten runs at this trip. Trap four has been a below-par draw in this grade, adding to the task for a dog who needs the pace up front to be strong.
Fast into stride but tends to fade in the closing stages, and won at a lower grade a few starts back before form levelled off. Gets the best-performing trap in this grade and has a fair course-and-distance record, a win and two places from ten runs at this trip. The draw is a genuine plus even if the fading profile is a concern late on.
Runner-up last time out and has been finding more with each recent start, a balanced sort who can adapt to how the race unfolds. Limited experience at this course and distance so far but has placed in four of his four runs at this trip. Gets a strong draw in this grade, which adds to a case built on recent improvement.
Won at the grade below last time out, a step up in company today, and has a fair course-and-distance record of two wins and three places from ten runs at this trip. The pace figures are the slowest in this field though, and trap six has been the weakest draw in this grade. A tall order stepping up here.
Key insight: Grade seven is one of the hardest grades to call at Sunderland - the composite top pick barely beats the field average at 18.8%, while the fastest dog in the field wins 23.4%, the strongest single signal at this grade.
T1:13.1% T2:21.6% T3:22.3% T4:15.4% T5:18.1% T6:10.7%
944 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Wishful Nancy | 24 | 100 | Closer |
2Swift Tear | 50 | 48 | All-Rounder |
3Ballyquin Izzy | 55 | 26 | Fader |
4Debbies Hope | 50 | 62 | Closer |
5Hi Hilda | 55 | 50 | Front Runner |
6Take A Risk | 45 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 261m | 450m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wishful Nancy | — | 0.629 |
| 2 | Swift Tear | 0.622 | 0.636 |
| 3 | Ballyquin Izzy | — | 0.638 |
| 4 | Debbies Hope | — | 0.633 |
| 5 | Hi Hilda | — | 0.629 |
| 6 | Take A Risk | — | 0.640 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.