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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Crystal Jadeb 2y 16 | I Zivkovic — 14% R591 W80 P279 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 43 | 49 (2) | 50 (2) | 46 (2) | 34 (6) | 29 (6) | 49 (3) | 46 (4) | 59 (1) | 56 (1) | 14 (5) | 29 | 28 | 20 | 18 | 40 | 34 | 4 | 11/4 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Burrow Penguinb 5y 24 | W M Lyons — 20% R1020 W199 P547 Trainer form — last 3 months | 39 | 46 | 28 (2) | 70 (1) | 42 (5) | 52 (4) | 14 (6) | 48 (5) | 20 (4) | 38 (3) | 27 (2) | 73 (1) | 44 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 36 | 5 | 6/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Lets Go Pablod 2y 18 | I Zivkovic — 14% R591 W80 P279 Trainer form — last 3 months | 46 | 73 | 32 (1) | 39 (3) | 38 (4) | 32 (1) | 47 (2) | 43 (4) | 47 (2) | 40 (4) | 48 (2) | 48 (3) | 30 | 36 | 20 | 21 | 35 | 33 | 3 | 9/2 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Pukka Poppyb 6y 35 | W M Lyons — 20% R1020 W199 P547 Trainer form — last 3 months | 45 | 77 | 19 (6) | 30 (6) | 35 (6) | 41 (5) | 57 (1) | 28 (1) | 15 (6) | 19 (6) | 33 (5) | 45 (3) | 23 | 28 | 23 | 26 | 34 | 30 | 6 | 7/1 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Lil Gunnerb 4y 16 | J S Atkins — 14% R288 W39 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | 56 | 52 | 30 (6) | 48 (5) | 44 (6) | 33 (5) | 41 (6) | 41 (4) | 35 (4) | 46 (5) | 51 (2) | - | 25 | 45 | 37 | 47 | 45 | 41 | 1 | 11/4 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Queen Babsb 4y 34 | J S Atkins — 14% R288 W39 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | 100 | 24 | 37 (5) | 49 (4) | 58 (1) | 22 (5) | 23 (3) | 16 (6) | 18 (6) | 24 (4) | 31 (1) | 48 (3) | 31 | 41 | 23 | 37 | 26 | 30 | 2 | 5/2F | ||
Lil Gunner brings the best combination of speed and consistency in this A8 field. His performance ratings have been remarkably stable in the mid-40s across recent runs (46→51→40→41→46) — no fireworks but no disasters either, and that reliability is valuable in a grade where most rivals are wildly inconsistent. His speed rating of 56 is the best in the field, and the Closer profile (CS 68) is perfectly suited to capitalising on the two Faders (Pablo and Pukka Poppy) who will burn out ahead of him. Track suitability of 45 and distance suitability of 47 confirm proven form at Kinsley 462 — hes run well here before. Trainer Atkins at 24% is a moderate-tier handler. The concern is T5 position, which at 18.07% from 238 runs is above expected but not structurally dominant. He also needs the Faders to set a strong enough pace that the race comes back to him rather than being held by something from the front. EP 46 means he wont be involved early and needs patience.
DANGER — Strongest recent form (59 peak) in the field with elite closing speed (CS 69). The T1 structural disadvantage and low suitability scores prevent a pick case, but the improvement trajectory makes her the main threat to Lil Gunner.
Erratic form with three consecutive sub-20 runs from a structurally weak T2 position. The 58 performance two starts ago feels like an anomaly. Not a factor unless reproducing his best.
Dominant trap position (T3, 20%) but five-run form decline from 56 to 19 eliminates the structural edge. Will lead early but almost certain to weaken. A front-running decoy rather than a genuine contender.
Best early pace in the field (bend 77, EP 71) but CS 13 is unsustainable at 462m. Will be prominent early then weaken. Last run of 28 doesnt inspire confidence in underlying ability. One to oppose in the closing stages.
Ultimate Closer profile (CS 100) but performance numbers in the low 20s mean she is structurally outclassed. Would need every rival to falter, and even then may not be quick enough to capitalise. Very unlikely to feature.
Composite rank separation is moderate (R1 18.4% vs R3 11.43% = 6.97pp gap) so ratings have some predictive value at A8. T3 dominant at 20% — both Faders drawn T3/T4 benefit from favourable positioning. T2 (14.69%) and T1 (15.14%) are the weakest traps structurally.
T1:15.14% T2:14.69% T3:20% T4:17.41% T5:18.07% T6:18.56%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Crystal Jade | 45 | 69 | Closer |
2Burrow Penguin | 54 | 32 | All-Rounder |
3Lets Go Pablo | 69 | 16 | Fader |
4Pukka Poppy | 71 | 13 | Fader |
5Lil Gunner | 46 | 68 | Closer |
6Queen Babs | 26 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.