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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tiptoe Taylorb 1y 23 | W M Lyons — 19% R1040 W201 P556 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | - | 19 (6) | 17 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 | 34 | - | - | 18 | 16 | 6 | 8/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Mid Tipp Scarb 1y 14 | S Smith — 20% R66 W13 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 48 | 39 (4) | 41 (5) | 31 (6) | 42 (5) | 48 (2) | 63 (1) | 42 (4) | 59 (1) | 20 (5) | 75 (1) | 48 | 68 | - | 30 | 46 | 48 | 1 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Real Queenb 4y 24 | S Smith — 20% R66 W13 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 60 | 22 (6) | 37 (5) | 35 (5) | 71 (1) | 42 (6) | 28 (6) | 49 (3) | 51 (2) | 37 (6) | 32 (1) | 44 | 38 | 10 | 38 | 42 | 42 | 3 | 15/8JF | |
| 4 | ▶ Droopys Willyad 3y 17 | J S Atkins — 14% R288 W39 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 50 | 68 (1) | 65 (1) | 54 (3) | 57 (2) | 59 (2) | 47 (3) | 46 (4) | 44 (3) | 63 (1) | 57 (3) | 34 | 34 | 25 | 34 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 7/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ New Editiond 2y 24 | I Zivkovic — 13% R602 W81 P284 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 37 | 40 | 26 (4) | 22 (6) | 34 (2) | 36 (1) | 36 (1) | 36 (1) | 35 (5) | 32 (1) | 24 (3) | 26 (3) | 31 | 23 | - | 6 | 30 | 27 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Twoshookmend 3y 23 | W M Lyons — 19% R1040 W201 P556 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 50 | 51 (3) | 30 (2) | 31 (3) | 56 (3) | 58 (2) | 46 (4) | 64 (1) | 59 (2) | 28 (3) | 30 (2) | 40 | 39 | 40 | 31 | 38 | 38 | 4 | 15/8JF | |
Mid Tipp Scar presents a puzzle: exceptional track suitability (68, highest in field by 30pp margin) combined with reasonable performance (46) and closer profile (EP 50, CS 57) create a structural case. Her T2 positioning (19.83%, mid-field) avoids T1 DEAD but lacks T3's dominant advantage. However, her form trajectory (59→20→75→25→15) is wildly erratic, and her recent 15 sits at the bottom of her range, suggesting potential decline from her 75-peak three runs prior. This volatility creates substantial uncertainty. Her suitability profile shows inconsistency: track 68 (exceptional), distance 30 (weak), trap 48 (solid), class 0 (insufficient data). The 30 distance suit contradicts her track advantage, suggesting she may perform well at Kinsley specifically but struggle at the 462m distance elsewhere. Trainer S Smith's 20% strike rate provides baseline confidence. Her pick rationale rests on her exceptional track suit advantage (68), which likely reflects specific Kinsley-course fit and proven performance at this venue. However, her erratic recent form (15) and weak distance suitability (30) create tangible risk.
Real Queen's T3 dominant positioning and all-rounder profile create a secondary threat, but her recent form decline (49→51→37→32→20) raises concerns about current fitness. T3 trap advantage is real; form decline is real. She remains a danger but with a clear declining trajectory.
Droopys Willya's mid-field performance (50) and closer profile suit 462m mechanics, with consistent suitability (34 across dimensions) suggesting solid venue fit. However, she lacks the special advantages (track suit 68 or trap dominance) needed to challenge for victory in this race.
Twoshookmen's weak distance suitability (31) at 462m, combined with extreme form volatility (22-51 range) and lower performance (38), position her as a secondary mid-field participant without upside. Recent form uptick (46) offers marginal hope but insufficient to challenge.
New Edition's catastrophic distance suitability (6) at 462m, combined with the field's lowest performance (30) and weak overall suitability profile, position her as the race's weakest performer. Recent form uptick (37) offers marginal hope but insufficient to overcome fundamental 462m distance aversion.
Tiptoe Taylor's T1 DEAD trap positioning, combined with low performance (18), lack of bend data, no distance history, and low EP (0), position her as the race's weakest performer. Her exceptional speed (100) is offset by structural disadvantages and critical data voids.
T3 carries dominant 21.46% edge; T1 severely DEAD at 10.6%. Normal separation between R1 and R3 (7.27pp). This is a pace-driven 462m race where T3 early-pace advantage and track suitability become decisive. Real Queen (T3) enters with both trap advantage and dominant form pattern (despite recent decline). Mid Tipp Scar's exceptional track suit (68) competes with form volatility. Trap advantage is structural; form is volatile.
T1:10.6% T2:19.83% T3:21.46% T4:15.13% T5:15.11% T6:18.52%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tiptoe Taylor | — | — | No data |
2Mid Tipp Scar | 50 | 57 | Closer |
3Real Queen | 53 | 7 | All-Rounder |
4Droopys Willya | 45 | 57 | Closer |
5New Edition | 42 | 50 | All-Rounder |
6Twoshookmen | 54 | 41 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.