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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Punk Rock Willowb 3y 6 | S Maplesden — 17% R276 W47 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 58 | 40 (5) | 42 (2) | 43 (2) | 34 (1) | 25 (2) | 25 (4) | 29 (5) | 50 (5) | 47 (1) | - | 56 | 53 | 25 | 42 | 31 | 38 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Doratarb 1y 14 | S A Cahill — 19% R380 W73 P227 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 37 | 33 (3) | 32 (3) | 37 (2) | 32 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 26 | 23 | 28 | 17 | 34 | 30 | 5 | 11/8F | |
| 3 | ▶ Chisem Dodgerd 1y 15 | R J Holloway — 20% R302 W61 P164 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 50 | 34 (5) | 41 (3) | 32 (5) | 38 (4) | 21 (6) | 48 (1) | 36 (2) | 31 (4) | 37 (3) | 36 (4) | 54 | 39 | - | 27 | 34 | 36 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Chisem Ameliab 1y 23 | R J Holloway — 20% R302 W61 P164 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 37 | 37 (6) | 36 (3) | 36 (3) | 31 (3) | 25 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | 5 | 23 | - | 14 | 34 | 27 | 6 | 6/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Rapido Avab 3y 5 | J J Heath — 21% R377 W81 P238 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 52 | 52 (6) | 44 (1) | 41 (3) | 49 (3) | 32 (1) | 43 (5) | 34 (1) | 34 (2) | 25 (2) | - | 33 | 35 | 40 | 31 | 33 | 33 | 3 | 4/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Roanna Dixieb 3y 4 | B S Green — 20% R422 W83 P248 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 53 | 36 (2) | 29 (4) | 33 (2) | 27 (5) | 26 (5) | 28 (4) | 33 (2) | 37 (3) | 32 (3) | 21 (5) | 21 | 19 | 31 | 18 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 10/1 | |
Punk Rock Willow's case rests primarily on the extraordinary structural advantage of trap 1 at A11 grade, which wins an astonishing 35.0% from 60 runs — more than double the expected rate. She backs it up individually with the best suitability scores in the field: track 53, distance 42, and trap 56 all confirm she thrives at this venue from this position. A Fader with early pace of 58 and the best bend rating in the race at 58 — she should lead into the first turn and establish a clear advantage. The performance figure of 31 isn't much to write home about but in an A11 field where everyone is rated between 31 and 34, it's no disadvantage either. Won two starts ago from this position and has been consistent enough. The structural case is compelling.
Good draw, reliable consistency, and recent class form — the danger if the pick doesn't lead.
Decent closing kick but poor venue suitability and moderate form — likely to be running on behind the pick.
Dead trap, worst suitability scores in the race, poor form — very hard to make a case for.
Fastest dog in the field but inconsistent efforts — another place finish looks most likely.
Poor recent form, poor suitability scores, and an unfavourable draw — unlikely to feature.
T1 is extraordinarily dominant at 35.0% — more than double the expected rate. Sample is 60 runs so treat with some caution, but the signal is overwhelming. Inside traps clearly favoured. NORMAL composite separation at 11.8pp — the model CAN separate runners here.
T1:35.0% T2:21.1% T3:23.5% T4:15.2% T5:17.7% T6:16.2%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Punk Rock Willow | 58 | 17 | Fader |
2Doratar | 39 | 89 | Closer |
3Chisem Dodger | 49 | 53 | All-Rounder |
4Chisem Amelia | 35 | 100 | Closer |
5Rapido Ava | 51 | 43 | All-Rounder |
6Roanna Dixie | 52 | 47 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.