Cowardly John has been the most consistent dog at D2 level with a run of thirds and fourths across his last four starts, and his pace data suggests a front-running style that should see him involved early. He has the best composite score and his bend rating at 51 is useful for the tight first turn. The major concern is the trap 5 draw — this is the dead box in D2 sprints at Towcester, winning under 14% from 274 runs, and his trap suitability of just 6 confirms he has personally struggled from this position. The ability is there but the structural headwind is significant. Confidence is tempered accordingly.