Bay City Indy has the highest average performance in the field and arrives off the back of a class drop from D3. He's a confirmed front-runner who breaks fast and leads — his early pace score is the only recorded one in the field, and it's maximal. The concern is the wide draw: trap 6 wins just under 18% in D4 sprints here, putting him at a slight structural disadvantage. His suitability scores are low across the board and recent form has been mixed, with fifth and sixth in his last two D3 starts. But the raw ability edge is clear in a weak field and if he breaks cleanly from the outside, his natural speed should see him to the front where he'll be hard to pass over 270 metres.