Everything structural points towards Salems Margarita here. She races from the dominant trap 6 which wins 22.34% from 461 runs — comfortably the best box — and her individual trap suitability of 60 is the highest in the field, confirming she thrives from this berth. Her outstanding bend rating and early pace mean she should lead into the first turn and build a cushion that the closers have to erode through four tight bends. Her speed rating of 40 is the weakest in the field, which means she'll slow through the closing stages, but on a tight track where front runners hold an advantage, the question is whether she slows enough for the closers to catch her.