The class act and the pick despite a declining trajectory. P62 average is 12 points clear of the next-best runner (Basic Instinct P50) — an enormous gap at HP level. Speed 79 is dominant, 14 points ahead of Nidderdalesummer's 65. Suitability scores are the best in every dimension: track 45, distance 44, trap 48, class 53 — she's a proven Nottingham HP 500m performer with more experience at this exact condition than any rival. The form trajectory 55→60→52→66→69→64 shows a declining trend from the P69 peak four runs back, but context matters: P55 for 5th and P60 for 4th in her last two are still higher than most rivals' best performances. She's operating at a level where even her floor (P52) is competitive. T6 is the best trap in HP at 22.60% from 385 runs, adding structural support. Trainer J Gray at 16% is moderate. The concern — and it's a real one — is that three consecutive sub-P62 runs suggest something may have changed. But in a field where nobody else touches P58 except Basic Instinct's single LR, the class gap should be decisive.