Nixon Drive has won three of his last four starts — two trials and a third-placed run at A6 — and his speed figure of 68 is head and shoulders above the rest of this field. He's a well-balanced All-Rounder drawn on the rail, which gives him the ground-saving advantage through Sunderland's difficult first bend. The trap 1 draw wins at a fair 19.7% in A6. His track suitability of 46 and distance suitability of 48 are both the best in the field. In a grade where composite rank is a poor predictor, raw speed becomes the tiebreaker — and his speed edge is not marginal, it's substantial. Trainer Bell runs a 20% yard. The recent winning sequence gives confidence even if the trials flatters the record.