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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hollyhill Isabelb 3y 7 | K L Windebank — 15% R504 W76 P264 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 68 | 39 (5) | 21 (5) | 44 (4) | 45 (3) | 50 (3) | 64 (1) | 52 (2) | 32 (6) | 58 (3) | 54 (3) | 11 | 23 | 25 | 19 | 47 | 42 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Aurelia Geegeeb 2y 7 | M P Brown — 18% R397 W73 P211 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 42 | 52 (1) | 36 (5) | 53 (1) | 45 (2) | 31 (6) | 41 (2) | 34 (5) | 33 (5) | 57 (1) | 43 (4) | 24 | 32 | 23 | 35 | 41 | 37 | 6 | 14/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Liberty Buckd 2y 13 | M Lewis — 16% R248 W39 P120 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 22 (5) | 28 (5) | 34 (2) | 29 (4) | 34 (1) | 27 (2) | - | - | - | - | 18 | 31 | - | - | 28 | 41 | 2 | 1/1F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Cheery Girlb 2y 15 | E G Samuels — 15% R598 W90 P319 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 51 | 46 (2) | 43 (2) | 45 (3) | 41 (5) | 53 (2) | 71 (5) | 38 (2) | 47 (4) | 52 (2) | - | 31 | 35 | 31 | 40 | 47 | 44 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Icaal Georged 5y 24 | V K Thom — 22% R107 W24 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 49 | 39 (4) | 49 (3) | 43 (4) | 44 (3) | 60 (1) | 49 (2) | 41 (5) | 52 (3) | 55 (2) | 59 (2) | 30 | 33 | 32 | 23 | 47 | 44 | 1 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Fercullen Aceb 1y 3 | M Lewis — 16% R248 W39 P120 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 66 | 42 (3) | 46 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 44 | 30 | 4 | 11/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Icaal George | 28.57 | 28.89 | 28.98 | 54 | +0.41 | Model pick, best trap | |
| 1 | Hollyhill Isabel | 28.60 | 28.94 | 29.00 | 52 | +0.40 | Best bend rating | |
| 4 | Cheery Girl | 28.53 | 29.00 | 29.08 | 51 | +0.55 | Fastest recorded time | |
| 6 | Fercullen Ace | 28.93 | 29.09 | 29.24 | 41 | +0.31 | Worst draw's rival | |
| 2 | Aurelia Geegee | 28.86 | 29.15 | 29.40 | 39 | +0.54 | Slowest with data | |
| 3 | Liberty Buck | No 462m form - all previous runs over 277m. Times not comparable. | — | No 462m form | ||||
Yarmouth's 462 metres is a fair, well-cambered galloping track with the fewest all-the-way winners of any circuit in the country, because the long run to the line so often reels in whoever leads early. At this lower grade, box five has been the standout draw at over 22 in every hundred runners while box one is the weakest at just over 16 - a meaningful swing given box one usually carries no disadvantage at this track. Icaal George, drawn in that favoured box five, combines the fastest clock time in the field with the best rating and a recent drop in grade, a genuine alignment of factors. Hollyhill Isabel carries the sharpest first-bend speed of the six despite her poor draw, and if she can get across cleanly from the rail she'll be the closest thing to a leader in this race. Liberty Buck is the wildcard, stepping up from sprint trips with no recorded form at this distance at all.
Coming down from a higher grade after a run of respectable placed efforts, and that class drop is a genuine positive against this softer opposition. The form reads solidly with a peak performance well clear of most of this field a few starts back, and while the last couple of runs haven't quite matched that level, the underlying pace is clearly there. Top of the ratings and fastest in this field on the clock, and drawn in the strongest box at this exact grade and trip - comfortably the best-performing draw in the race. His trainer also boasts the strongest record here of any handler in the field, winning well over a quarter of runners sent out under these exact conditions. Four separate positives lining up behind the same dog is a rare combination - the clear one to beat.
Recently dropped in grade after a couple of tidy placed efforts at a tougher level, and the underlying pace looks solid even though the last couple of starts haven't been won. What stands out is her bend speed - she carries the sharpest first-bend figure of anyone in this race, which matters enormously at a track where getting across cleanly into that opening turn can define the whole trip. The draw works against her though, sitting in the weakest box at this exact grade and trip. Her trainer's record in these conditions is nearly as strong as the pick's, one of the best in the field. If she can use that early speed to overcome the poor box, she's the biggest threat on the day.
Well below her peak grade on paper, having campaigned at a considerably higher level in the past, and her recent form has been steady without threatening to win. She holds the fastest recorded best time of anyone in this field, though her clock times lately haven't come close to reproducing it. Trap four is a fair, unremarkable draw at this grade and trip. Her trainer's record in these conditions is the weakest in this field, which is a genuine concern. There's talent on paper given the level she's competed at previously, but she needs to find that level again to trouble the pick.
Steady rather than spectacular recent form, without a win among his last six starts but consistently competitive. Carries a decent bend rating which should help him into the first turn from the wide box, though trap six has been a modest performer at this exact grade and trip. His trainer's overall record is similar to the pick's, but the small sample at these specific conditions makes it hard to lean on heavily. Sits toward the bottom of the ratings and the clock times in this field, leaving him needing a strong tactical run to feature.
Recent form has been modest without threatening the front of the field, and she's the slowest in this race on both best and last-time clockings. Trap two is a fair draw at this grade and trip, sitting in the middle of the pack, and her trainer's record in these conditions is actually one of the better figures in the race from a small sample. That trainer angle is the main point of interest, because the raw speed figures put her at the back of this field on what she's shown recently.
A significant step up in trip today - every recorded run has come over the shorter sprint distance, so there's no clock to compare and no way to know how she'll handle covering this much further ground for the first time. Recent sprint form has been modest, without a win in her last six starts, though she has managed a couple of placed efforts. Trap three is a fair box at this grade and trip. The jump in distance is a genuine unknown, and without any evidence she stays this kind of trip, she's the hardest runner in the race to assess with confidence.
Key insight: The pick brings four separate positives together here - top rating, fastest clock time, the best-performing draw, and the strongest trainer record in the race - a genuine stack rather than a single-factor selection.
Trap 5 strongest at 22.2%, trap 1 weakest at 16.4%
784 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Hollyhill Isabel | 73 | 13 | Fader |
2Aurelia Geegee | 47 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Liberty Buck | — | — | No data |
4Cheery Girl | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Icaal George | 50 | 58 | Closer |
6Fercullen Ace | 68 | 20 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (462m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 462m | 659m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollyhill Isabel | 0.621 | 0.626 | — |
| 2 | Aurelia Geegee | — | 0.631 | — |
| 3 | Liberty Buck | 0.610 | — | — |
| 4 | Cheery Girl | — | 0.628 | 0.642 |
| 5 | Icaal George | — | 0.625 | — |
| 6 | Fercullen Ace | — | 0.630 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.