The standout on multiple fronts in a weak D4 race. Best average performance in the field at 28 — modest in absolute terms but significant in this company — and the best speed rating at 59, which is miles clear of the next best. Crucially, he draws the hottest trap at D4 grade with trap two converting at 22.8%, the highest of any position. His early-pace rating of 100 means he should fire from the lids and establish an early lead, which over 277 metres is often all you need. The fading profile is the concern — he gives back ground late — but if he can build a big enough advantage through the first bend, the others shouldn't have the quality to reel him in. Form of 22-25-31-31-31-26 is low but consistent, and he's clearly the best of a modest bunch. Trainer Davidson at 8% is poor, but the combination of best draw and best speed is hard to ignore.