Loading...
Arena Racing Company Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Strictly Motsib 1y 5 | P Rutherford — 17% R341 W58 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | 64 | 49 | 30 | 50 (4) | 42 (2) | 44 (4) | 21 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Canny Satellited 1y | P Rutherford — 17% R341 W58 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | 25 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Aboxoffrogsb 2y 15 | C L Hardy — 19% R225 W42 P129 Trainer form — last 3 months | 62 | 51 | 52 | 38 (6) | 69 (1) | 45 (5) | 22 (5) | 23 (4) | 21 (6) | 41 (2) | 40 (5) | 56 (1) | 41 (3) | 29 | 22 | 23 | 27 | 48 | 43 | 1 | 10/11F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Bushfire Jackd 1y 3 | P Rutherford — 17% R341 W58 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | 53 | 46 | 48 | 54 (3) | 36 (4) | 35 (4) | 44 (4) | 44 (6) | 40 (3) | 33 (4) | 30 (4) | 25 (5) | 33 (4) | 2 | - | - | - | 40 | 34 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Lasting Dreamd 1y | S Roberts — 17% R173 W30 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 25 | 5 | 14/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Alnwick Tinab 2y 110 | A Harrison — 21% R543 W112 P326 Trainer form — last 3 months | 65 | 53 | 71 | 34 (1) | 31 (6) | 50 (1) | 21 (6) | 24 (4) | 28 (3) | 25 (5) | 31 (3) | 33 (4) | 24 (3) | 4 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 36 | 35 | 6 | 5/2 | - | |
The pick, supported by the model's top rating and the best performance average (48) in the assessable field. Aboxoffrogs has produced a win at Handicap grade from trap 3 here — a 69-rated effort — and today faces the softest open-grade opposition on the card. An All-Rounder with a balanced early and late pace, she is well suited to Newcastle's demanding gallop. Trap 3 has historically been the most reliable draw at A9 on this circuit, adding a structural advantage on top of the form edge. C L Hardy handles her with a track record at this venue. The concern is inconsistency — a sixth place at HP immediately before the win, and a poor run at D3 in the mix — but among the assessable runners today she has the highest performance ceiling and the best structural draw. At A9 grade with two unknowns in the field, one consistent runner with a winning run from this draw is the most defensible pick.
Speed rank 1 and proven A9 winner but lowest average performance in field. Danger to selection, not the pick.
Honest A9 runner but modest ceiling — rated only 42 at best. Third pick in this field on current form.
No form. Not considered for selection.
Honest runner who consistently places but the fourth-place pattern makes him difficult to fancy for the win.
No form to evaluate. Not selected.
At A9 Newcastle 480m, T3 has historically been the dominant structural draw, winning significantly above average at this grade. Performance rank 1 and model agreement point to the T3 runner. Two debutants reduce overall confidence at this grade where field quality variation is already significant.
T1:19.3% T2:17.8% T3:19.1% T4:17.9% T5:16.5% T6:17.8%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Strictly Motsi | 29 | 92 | Closer |
2Canny Satellite | — | — | No data |
3Aboxoffrogs | 54 | 46 | All-Rounder |
4Bushfire Jack | 46 | 54 | All-Rounder |
5Lasting Dream | — | — | No data |
6Alnwick Tina | 72 | 1 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strictly Motsi | — | 0.644 |
| 2 | Canny Satellite | — | — |
| 3 | Aboxoffrogs | 0.615 | 0.636 |
| 4 | Bushfire Jack | — | 0.640 |
| 5 | Lasting Dream | — | — |
| 6 | Alnwick Tina | 0.610 | 0.635 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.