Rockmount Nellie gets the nod here primarily on the strength of her outstanding suitability at Yarmouth — her course and distance record is the best of any runner in the field by a considerable margin, and she has strong class credentials having competed well at A1 and A2 level recently. She won at A2 two starts back with an 87 and ran a creditable 78 in A1 last time. The concern is her pace profile — she tends to lead early and then weaken — and Yarmouth is not kind to that style. However, her exceptional suitability scores suggest she's learned to adapt her running at this venue, and C R Morris at 28% places his dogs well. The trap 5 draw is the weakest in the race at 16.9% and that tempers confidence, but the model rates her overall package highest.