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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Salacres Cathb 4y 36 | P H Harnden — 18% R394 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | 57 | 28 | 83 (2) | 49 (4) | 68 (4) | 62 (3) | 52 (4) | 54 (4) | 55 (4) | 54 (4) | 47 (5) | 62 (2) | 36 | 33 | 2 | 15 | 57 | 47 | 2 | 5/2 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Cappa Gracieb 2y 16 | J M Liles — 19% R429 W82 P226 Trainer form — last 3 months | 59 | 62 | 57 (3) | 69 (1) | 55 (2) | 26 (2) | 59 (5) | 47 (5) | 65 (1) | 62 (1) | 70 (3) | 52 (3) | 56 | 35 | 22 | 50 | 55 | 53 | 1 | 7/2 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Romeo Bravod 1y 6 | L G Tuffin — 25% R277 W68 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | 41 | 52 | 53 (5) | 47 (5) | 68 (1) | 32 (6) | 61 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | 26 | 27 | 12 | 27 | 52 | 40 | 4 | 11/4 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Dakota Goldb 1y 5 | A Ioannou — 13% R90 W12 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 62 | 43 (5) | 68 (1) | 61 (1) | 42 (5) | 53 (2) | 44 (3) | 44 (5) | 53 (4) | 22 (4) | 22 (5) | 28 | 28 | 13 | 39 | 49 | 48 | 3 | 9/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ So Its Flashb 2y 13 | K J Crocker — 15% R143 W22 P77 Trainer form — last 3 months | 22 | 42 | 75 (1) | 43 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | 43 | 23 | 5 | 7/4F | ||
Salacres Cath is selected primarily on the strength of T1's grade-specific A5 advantage at Towcester — a win rate of 28.94% that represents the highest trap probability at this grade and distance combination, and a 5-point premium over the all-grades T3 figure. At A5 Towcester 500m, T1 is the structural apex. She holds speed rank 2 at 57 — just 2 points behind Cappa Gracie — which is a marginal pace deficit rather than a categorical one. Her recent A5 form (13 May: P49, pos 4; 23 Apr: P62, pos 1 in A5) confirms she is competitive at this exact grade and has won it within the last month. The T1 draw at 500m provides the inside line into the first bend, enabling her to establish rail position early and dictate the race from the front. The case against selection is clear: Cappa Gracie and Dakota Gold have both won A6 very recently and carry higher performance ratings (P69, P68 vs P49). The selection rests on the empirical finding that T1 at A5 Towcester outperforms on the win-rate data, and that Salacres Cath's pace (speed rank 2) is sufficient to make use of that draw advantage.
Dominant on every raw metric — the pick only on grade-specific T1 data. If the empirical A5 T1 advantage is the deciding factor, Cappa Gracie is the biggest danger on the card.
T3 draw is the appeal but speed rank 4th in a five-runner field is a structural pace disadvantage. Not a selection candidate.
Three wins in a row is impossible to ignore — the alternative selection for those who weight form momentum over trap. T4 draw and speed rank 3rd are the reservations.
Speed rank last by 35 points and T6 draw. Full elimination from selection analysis.
A5 is the sweet spot grade at Towcester 500m — composite rank 1 wins 31.1% and T1 wins 28.94% grade-specific. T1 draw override is the defining analytical decision in this race.
Grade-specific A5: T1:28.94% (grade-specific override). All-grades: T3:23.6% T6:16.8%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Salacres Cath | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Cappa Gracie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Romeo Bravo | 55 | 50 | Front Runner |
4Dakota Gold | 59 | 50 | Front Runner |
6So Its Flash | 50 | 33 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.