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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Swift Paxtond 3y 26 | J J Luckhurst — 14% R281 W39 P125 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 50 | 50 (6) | 50 (5) | 82 (1) | 61 (3) | 60 (5) | 69 (3) | 72 (1) | 74 (2) | 58 (4) | 50 (5) | 29 | 28 | 20 | 34 | 62 | 46 | 6 | 10/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Hollyoak Baileyd 2y 26 | R W Butler — 18% R213 W38 P107 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 46 | 63 (5) | 33 (6) | 56 (4) | 77 (2) | 81 (1) | 74 (1) | 72 (1) | 50 (3) | 48 (4) | 62 (2) | 34 | 41 | 12 | 40 | 59 | 43 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Beach Timed 2y 5 | T M Levers — 16% R112 W18 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 49 | 51 (5) | 61 (5) | 53 (3) | 71 (5) | 57 (3) | 42 (5) | 83 (6) | 81 (1) | 47 (1) | - | 15 | 23 | 17 | 18 | 59 | 47 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Beach Tripd 3y 14 | T M Levers — 16% R112 W18 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 47 | 58 (5) | 56 (1) | 63 (4) | 80 (4) | 65 (1) | 50 (2) | 40 (5) | 75 (6) | 66 (1) | - | 38 | 39 | 20 | 33 | 61 | 48 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Earls Jesterd 2y 7 | J J Luckhurst — 14% R281 W39 P125 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 59 | 48 (6) | 53 (4) | 71 (2) | 42 (6) | 67 (6) | 51 (4) | 74 (6) | 51 (2) | 50 (6) | - | 26 | 31 | 37 | 20 | 56 | 49 | 1 | 6/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Harriestown Leed 4y 37 | L B Pearce — 16% R149 W24 P77 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 55 | 70 (2) | 68 (2) | 74 (2) | 65 (3) | 67 (2) | 47 (5) | 67 (3) | 65 (2) | 55 (4) | 57 (4) | 33 | 28 | 39 | 40 | 66 | 49 | 2 | 7/4 | - | |
Drawn in the second-best position at A2 491m — trap 6 wins 19.99% — and brings the most dynamic recent form in the race. The average performance of 66 is the highest in the field by a margin, and the speed rating of 54 sits above several rivals. The key distinguishing factor is trajectory: the improving form pattern across recent starts suggests a dog moving upward through the grades, which is the most reliable indicator of a runner ready to win at this level. While Beach Trip holds the structural draw advantage from trap 4, Harriestown Lee pairs a very strong draw with the best performance profile in the race. The combination of second-best trap, highest average performance, and improving form trajectory makes this the selection at a Tentative level — A2 at Central Park is rarely easy to call.
Best draw plus class drop. Serious danger and could easily win.
Class drop is encouraging but worst draw kills the appeal.
Below-average trap and modest ratings. Likely to fill a minor role.
Ordinary metrics and an average draw. Unlikely winner.
Terrible draw with no compelling metrics to overcome it.
1,891 A2 491m runs. T4 dominant (23.8%), T6 second (20.0%), T1 weakest (13.7%), T5 terrible (9.6%). Composite R1 wins 21.2% — moderate predictability. Speed R1 wins 21.5%.
T1:13.7% T2:16.3% T3:16.7% T4:23.8% T5:9.6% T6:20.0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 491m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Swift Paxton | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Hollyoak Bailey | 46 | 58 | Closer |
3Beach Time | 50 | 55 | Closer |
4Beach Trip | 50 | 45 | All-Rounder |
5Earls Jester | 59 | 1 | Fader |
6Harriestown Lee | 55 | 16 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 491m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (491m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 491m | 664m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swift Paxton | 0.609 | 0.638 |
| 2 | Hollyoak Bailey | 0.611 | — |
| 3 | Beach Time | 0.608 | — |
| 4 | Beach Trip | 0.611 | — |
| 5 | Earls Jester | 0.610 | — |
| 6 | Harriestown Lee | 0.610 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.