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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tokenfire Kittyb 1y 35 | - | - | 56 | - | 49 (3) | 32 (6) | 47 (2) | 39 (5) | 38 (4) | 31 (6) | - | - | - | - | 2 | 5 | - | - | 40 | 24 | 2 | 2/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Oak Cornerd 1y | - | - | 27 | - | 37 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | 37 | 24 | 6 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Westwind Postb 1y 1 | - | - | 51 | - | 44 (4) | 25 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 35 | 32 | 3 | 5/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Quiet Colemand 1y 1 | - | - | 46 | - | 41 (5) | 32 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 37 | 30 | 5 | 1/1f | |
| 5 | ▶ Pennylane Signetb 1y 13 | - | - | 46 | - | 33 (6) | 44 (4) | 38 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 38 | 27 | 4 | 2/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Knocknaseed Baled 2y 5 | - | - | 63 | - | 49 (3) | 40 (4) | 38 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 43 | 41 | 1 | 2/1 | |
Knocknaseed Bale is selected as the marginal form pick in a very data-sparse A7 field. Her 525m form shows P49 third (A8 525m, 4 April) and P40 fourth (A8 525m) — two consecutive placed finishes at 525m, consistent with a dog that finds the right end of the field without being a dominant winner. AvgPerf 43 is the highest in this race. The recent A8 form is the best consistent placed profile in this field — no other runner has two consecutive 525m placed finishes. Trap 6 at Tralee 525m returns 13.5% from 1079 runs — slightly below average, which is the primary concern. All suitability at zero reflects limited familiarity with Tralee conditions. Confidence is Speculative — in a field where most runners have 1-2 runs and no clear leaders, any runner could spring a surprise. Knocknaseed Bale is the marginal preference purely on having the best consistent placed form at 525m.
Best draw in the race with a P49 placed 525m effort. Main danger to the selection — the T1 structural advantage is genuine and could be decisive if both runners perform to form.
Single run only with a P37 fifth in an ungraded race. Cannot be meaningfully assessed with one data point — uncertainty is too high.
Declining two-run form sequence ending in P25 sixth. Second-lowest avgPerf in the field. No realistic winning case at A7 grade.
Above-average draw but P41 fifth most recently at A7 grade and P32 sixth prior. Two runs and no placings — cannot be preferred over runners with better placed form.
Worst draw at 12.2% combined with three runs without a placing and declining form. No realistic winning case in this A7 field.
Tralee 525m trap separation is low. In a sparse-data A7 field, form differentials are the key factor. Knocknaseed Bale's P49 third (best 525m form) slightly edges Tokenfire Kitty's P49 third from the stronger T1 draw.
T1:15.6% T2:13.8% T3:14.1% T4:14.4% T5:12.2% T6:13.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.