The pick on the combination of the best structural draw in the race and consistent recent peak performances. Trap 4 wins 20 percent at A0 525m here from 107 runs — the best box in this race. Recent form reads 76, 82, 68, 83, 30, 55 from newest to oldest — a range with some volatility, but the three most relevant recent performances are 76, 82 and 83, three solid efforts all at the right level for this grade. Average performance of 65 is mid-field, but the peak recent form is better than that average suggests. Two course and distance runs at Shelbourne 525m without a win — not a course specialist but active at this venue. Trainer Sean Dooley at 20 percent is modest. The structural advantage of the best draw in the race, combined with recent peak performances in the 76 to 83 range, makes Town Lucky the pick ahead of the wider field in what is otherwise a hard race to separate.