Eire Marko won comfortably at D3 last time showing good early pace from midfield, and has the best individual trap suitability of any runner in this race from the trap 2 position. The model's prediction is based on his overall profile — equal-best average performance with good course knowledge — but there's no escaping that trap 2 is the weakest position at D2 level by some margin. His personal record from this box (suit 52) tells a more positive story than the aggregate, and if he breaks cleanly and secures a position through the first bend, his quality should tell. The risk is clear though — in a race with low separation, the structural headwind of the dead trap is significant.