Im Afraid Not occupies the most powerful position in the race — trap four at A1 491 metres produces a remarkable 27.3% of winners from 165 runs, making it the single most dominant trap on tonight's card by a wide margin. He's a confirmed closer with an average performance of 74, putting him firmly in the top tier of this competitive field. He won brilliantly two starts back with an 86, and his other recent efforts have all been solid. His speed rating of 58 is the best among the closers, meaning when the pace collapses late — which looks likely with three faders in the field — he'll be the one finishing fastest. Everything converges here: dominant trap, strong class, proven closing style, and a race shape that should suit perfectly.