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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Liffeyside Oakd 3y 15 | G Strike — 18% R410 W74 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 48 | 47 (5) | 73 (1) | 55 (3) | 53 (2) | 54 (3) | 40 (5) | 56 (3) | 51 (4) | 44 (4) | 56 (2) | 36 | 36 | 11 | 34 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 15/8F | |
| 2 | ▶ Balmoral Lucyb 2y 25 | D Blackbird — 17% R1088 W183 P589 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 54 | 68 (2) | 58 (5) | 64 (3) | 58 (2) | 46 (3) | 73 (6) | 54 (1) | 49 (3) | 70 (5) | - | 29 | 41 | - | 38 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Ferndale Buckod 2y 4 | S Linley — 17% R373 W65 P191 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 46 | 25 (3) | 36 (3) | 63 (6) | 32 (2) | 68 (6) | 53 (1) | 55 (3) | 62 (2) | 49 (1) | - | 43 | 57 | 31 | 53 | 51 | 51 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballyhooly Roryd 2y 12 | P Miller — 17% R501 W87 P263 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 73 (1) | 69 (1) | 43 (4) | 41 (5) | 39 (5) | 63 (1) | 46 (2) | 38 (5) | 46 (5) | 63 (1) | 31 | 46 | - | 46 | 54 | 49 | 2 | 2/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Monleek Delhid 2y 17 | M J Fieldson — 13% R39 W5 P23 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 39 (5) | 63 (2) | 51 (4) | 48 (3) | 48 (5) | 33 (6) | 56 (2) | 52 (3) | 51 (4) | 48 (4) | 18 | 22 | 11 | 22 | 49 | 39 | 5 | 4/1 | |
Ferndale Bucko is the model pick and represents the highest composite score (51) in a field where ratings have inverted predictive power, making the pick inherently tentative. T3 is the weakest trap (16%, 200 runs), creating a structural disadvantage that compounds the low-separation environment—in such fields, trap weakness is rarely overcome by ratings alone. The all-rounder profile (EP=49, CS=51) offers tactical flexibility; speed (49) is solid. The exceptional track suitability (57) and distance suitability (53) indicate this dog is specifically optimized for Sunderland 450m A6 conditions, and those high suitability scores may partially compensate for the T3 disadvantage. Form reads P36→P63→P32→P68→P53, showing extreme volatility (36 low, 68 peak, 53 recent) and inconsistent execution. The last run (6th A6 CD, "SAw,Crd1" saw air, carded trouble) is a negative indicator; carding suggests avoidable error contributing to the sixth-place finish. Trainer S Linley's 18% strike rate is respectable. The pick hinges entirely on Bucko's exceptional track/distance suitability (57/53) overcoming both the T3 structural disadvantage and the form volatility. In an inverted-separation field, trap weakness is the dominant signal, making this a speculative choice rather than a strong conviction.
Strong danger despite moderate ratings. Recent 2nd place with recovery from early trouble (bumped first, ran on) is a positive race pattern at Sunderland. Form volatility (19, 23 lows vs 54, 40 returns) is a check but recent upturn suggests current fitness. Composite (44) is below pick (51) but in an inverted-separation field, trap bias and race dynamics matter more than ratings.
Moderate threat from trap advantage, but downward form (ending 20 last run) is a strong negative. Fader profile with weak CS (39) makes recovery at Sunderland less likely. T2 structural advantage partially offset by form deterioration and moderate suitability scores.
Speculative at best. Career sample of only four races is too small for reliable assessment. Form volatility (13 career-best to 18 recent) suggests inconsistency or lucky race shape dependency. Fader profile with weak CS (35) makes Sunderland recovery scenario unlikely.
Clear outsider. Lowest composite (39) combined with weakest suitability metrics (22/22/18) across all dimensions. Form stability (48, 48 recent) is only positive, but insufficient to overcome fundamental condition mismatch. Last run trouble at bend (led to 1, bumped) likely symptomatic of unsuitability.
Inverted separation means ratings are unreliable predictors. Trap position and race shape (pace, bend trouble exposure) dominate outcomes. Five-dog field increases tactical sensitivity.
T2 dominant 20.99% (162), T6 close 20.38% (157); T3 weakest 16% (200)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Liffeyside Oak | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Balmoral Lucy | 58 | 39 | Fader |
3Ferndale Bucko | 49 | 51 | All-Rounder |
4Ballyhooly Rory | 57 | 35 | Fader |
5Monleek Delhi | 50 | 51 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.